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- Publisher Website: 10.1093/infdis/jiab424
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85127154589
- PMID: 34423821
- WOS: WOS:000744675800006
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Article: Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019
Title | Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019 |
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Authors | |
Keywords | COVID-19 Incubation period Generation time Reproduction number |
Issue Date | 2021 |
Publisher | Oxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://jid.oxfordjournals.org |
Citation | The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2021, v. 224 n. 10, p. 1664-1671 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution.
Methods: We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, accounting for sampling biases. We applied the framework on 80 laboratory-confirmed human-to-human transmission pairs in China. We further inferred the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19.
Results: The estimated mean incubation period was 4.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1–5.6), and mean generation time was 5.7 days (95% CI, 4.8–6.5). The estimated R0 based on the estimated generation time was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.9–2.4). A simulation study suggested that our approach could provide unbiased estimates, insensitive to the width of exposure windows.
Conclusions: Properly accounting for the timing and process of data collection is critical to have correct estimates of generation time and incubation period. R0 can be biased when it is derived based on serial interval as the proxy of generation time. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/302330 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 5.0 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.387 |
PubMed Central ID | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Lau, YC | - |
dc.contributor.author | Tsang, TK | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kennedy-Shaffer, L | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kahn, R | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lau, EHY | - |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, D | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, JY | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ali, ST | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wu, P | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cowling, BJ | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-09-06T03:30:44Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-09-06T03:30:44Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2021, v. 224 n. 10, p. 1664-1671 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0022-1899 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/302330 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution. Methods: We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, accounting for sampling biases. We applied the framework on 80 laboratory-confirmed human-to-human transmission pairs in China. We further inferred the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19. Results: The estimated mean incubation period was 4.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1–5.6), and mean generation time was 5.7 days (95% CI, 4.8–6.5). The estimated R0 based on the estimated generation time was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.9–2.4). A simulation study suggested that our approach could provide unbiased estimates, insensitive to the width of exposure windows. Conclusions: Properly accounting for the timing and process of data collection is critical to have correct estimates of generation time and incubation period. R0 can be biased when it is derived based on serial interval as the proxy of generation time. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Oxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://jid.oxfordjournals.org | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | The Journal of Infectious Diseases | - |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | - |
dc.subject | Incubation period | - |
dc.subject | Generation time | - |
dc.subject | Reproduction number | - |
dc.title | Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019 | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Lau, YC: chunglau@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Tsang, TK: matklab@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Lau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Chen, D: dxchen@HKUCC-COM.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wong, JY: wongytj@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Ali, ST: alist15@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wu, P: pengwu@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Cowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Tsang, TK=rp02571 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Lau, EHY=rp01349 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Ali, ST=rp02673 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Wu, P=rp02025 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Cowling, BJ=rp01326 | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_OA_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/infdis/jiab424 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 34423821 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC8499762 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85127154589 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 324800 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 224 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 10 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 1664 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 1671 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000744675800006 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |