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Article: The differential importation risks of COVID-19 from inbound travellers and the feasibility of targeted travel controls: A case study in Hong Kong

TitleThe differential importation risks of COVID-19 from inbound travellers and the feasibility of targeted travel controls: A case study in Hong Kong
Authors
Issue Date2021
PublisherElsevier: Creative Commons Licenses. The Journal's web site is located at https://www.thelancet.com/regional-health/western-pacific
Citation
The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 2021, v. 13, p. article no. 100184 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Many countries/regions implemented strict border measures (e.g., 14-day quarantines) as a blanket policy to prevent COVID-19 importations, while proposed “travel bubbles” as an alternative to reduce the impact of border controls. We aim to examine the differential importation risks with departure origins and post-arrival controls. Methods: We developed a Bayesian framework to model disease progress of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of travel measures and inferred the origin-specific disease prevalence among inbound travellers, using data on passengers arriving in Hong Kong and laboratory-confirmed imported cases. We estimated the origin-specific risks of releasing infectious travellers under different control strategies and traveller volumes. We also estimated the risk of having released infectious travellers when a resurgence occurs in departure locations with no imported cases during a certain period. Findings: Under the then strict controls of 14-day quarantine and testing on day 12, the Philippines imposed the greatest importation risk among the studied countries/regions (95.8% of releasing at least one infectious traveller, 95% credible interval (CrI), 94.8-96.6%). This was higher than that from low prevalence countries/regions (e.g., 23.4%, 95% CrI, 21.6-25.3% for Taiwan) if controls relaxed (i.e., 7-day quarantine and test on day 5). Increased traveller volumes and resurgence in departure locations with low prevalence under relaxed controls did not impose a greater importation risk than high prevalence locations under stricter controls. Interpretation: Moderate relaxation of control measures for travellers arriving from low prevalence locations did not impose higher risks of community outbreaks than strict controls on travellers from high prevalence locations. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/301722
ISSN
PubMed Central ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorYang, B-
dc.contributor.authorTsang, TK-
dc.contributor.authorWong, JY-
dc.contributor.authorHe, Y-
dc.contributor.authorGao, H-
dc.contributor.authorHo, F-
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY-
dc.contributor.authorWu, P-
dc.contributor.authorSullivan, SG-
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ-
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-09T03:43:16Z-
dc.date.available2021-08-09T03:43:16Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationThe Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 2021, v. 13, p. article no. 100184-
dc.identifier.issn2666-6065-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/301722-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Many countries/regions implemented strict border measures (e.g., 14-day quarantines) as a blanket policy to prevent COVID-19 importations, while proposed “travel bubbles” as an alternative to reduce the impact of border controls. We aim to examine the differential importation risks with departure origins and post-arrival controls. Methods: We developed a Bayesian framework to model disease progress of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of travel measures and inferred the origin-specific disease prevalence among inbound travellers, using data on passengers arriving in Hong Kong and laboratory-confirmed imported cases. We estimated the origin-specific risks of releasing infectious travellers under different control strategies and traveller volumes. We also estimated the risk of having released infectious travellers when a resurgence occurs in departure locations with no imported cases during a certain period. Findings: Under the then strict controls of 14-day quarantine and testing on day 12, the Philippines imposed the greatest importation risk among the studied countries/regions (95.8% of releasing at least one infectious traveller, 95% credible interval (CrI), 94.8-96.6%). This was higher than that from low prevalence countries/regions (e.g., 23.4%, 95% CrI, 21.6-25.3% for Taiwan) if controls relaxed (i.e., 7-day quarantine and test on day 5). Increased traveller volumes and resurgence in departure locations with low prevalence under relaxed controls did not impose a greater importation risk than high prevalence locations under stricter controls. Interpretation: Moderate relaxation of control measures for travellers arriving from low prevalence locations did not impose higher risks of community outbreaks than strict controls on travellers from high prevalence locations. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherElsevier: Creative Commons Licenses. The Journal's web site is located at https://www.thelancet.com/regional-health/western-pacific-
dc.relation.ispartofThe Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.titleThe differential importation risks of COVID-19 from inbound travellers and the feasibility of targeted travel controls: A case study in Hong Kong-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailYang, B: byyang@connect.hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailTsang, TK: matklab@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailWong, JY: wongytj@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailHe, Y: hynmph@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailWu, P: pengwu@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityTsang, TK=rp02571-
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349-
dc.identifier.authorityWu, P=rp02025-
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100184-
dc.identifier.pmid34179860-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC8214928-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85108301283-
dc.identifier.hkuros323991-
dc.identifier.volume13-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 100184-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 100184-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-

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