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Article: Accounting for Imported Cases in Estimating the Time-Varying Reproductive Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hong Kong

TitleAccounting for Imported Cases in Estimating the Time-Varying Reproductive Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hong Kong
Authors
Tsang, TKWu, PLau, EHYCowling, BJ
KeywordsReproductive number
COVID-19
Transmissibility
Imported cases
Issue Date2021
PublisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://jid.oxfordjournals.org
Citation
The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2021, v. 224 n. 5, p. 783-787 How to Cite?
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiab299
AbstractEstimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated Rt for local cases rose above 1 in late March 2020, which was undetected by other commonly used methods. When imported cases account for a considerable proportion of all cases, their impact on estimating Rt is critical.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/300991
ISSN
0022-1899
2023 Impact Factor: 5.0
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.387
PubMed Central ID
PMC8244742
ISI Accession Number ID
WOS:000703933800007

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorTsang, TK-
dc.contributor.authorWu, P-
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY-
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ-
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-06T03:13:01Z-
dc.date.available2021-07-06T03:13:01Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationThe Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2021, v. 224 n. 5, p. 783-787-
dc.identifier.issn0022-1899-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/300991-
dc.description.abstractEstimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated Rt for local cases rose above 1 in late March 2020, which was undetected by other commonly used methods. When imported cases account for a considerable proportion of all cases, their impact on estimating Rt is critical.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://jid.oxfordjournals.org-
dc.relation.ispartofThe Journal of Infectious Diseases-
dc.subjectReproductive number-
dc.subjectCOVID-19-
dc.subjectTransmissibility-
dc.subjectImported cases-
dc.titleAccounting for Imported Cases in Estimating the Time-Varying Reproductive Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hong Kong-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailTsang, TK: matklab@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailWu, P: pengwu@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityTsang, TK=rp02571-
dc.identifier.authorityWu, P=rp02025-
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349-
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326-
dc.description.naturelink_to_OA_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/infdis/jiab299-
dc.identifier.pmid34086944-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC8244742-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85116958119-
dc.identifier.hkuros323243-
dc.identifier.volume224-
dc.identifier.issue5-
dc.identifier.spage783-
dc.identifier.epage787-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000703933800007-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-

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