Quantifying Demand and Impacts of High-speed Rail System

Abstract

The rapid development of high-speed rail (HSR) around the world, especially in China, has revitalized the railway industry while posing considerable challenges for transport management. This talk will discuss some recent research advances in HSR demand modeling and economic impact quantifications. In the first part, we will talk aboutthe modeling and estimation of HSRdemand distribution based on ticket booking records in the Railway Ticketing System (e.g., 12306). Methodsthatestimate the possible desired departure time period (PDDTP) for each trip, and hence the aggregate demand distribution, will be discussed. The second part of this talk will present some econometric studies that quantify the multi-fold impact of HSR on regional location endowment (evaluated by accessibility and connectivity), on economic growth,and on other substitutional and complementary transport modes. The results expect to shed lights on the large-scale HSR network modeling,transport infrastructure planning, and multi-modal transport system management.