A readapted Malone schistosome transmission index model

Abstract

Schistosome transmission index can be directly used to give an overall evaluation and prediction of schistosomiasis transmission through a mathematical model. In the light of the mechanism of schistosomiasis transmission process, an improved Malone schistosome transmission index model was established based on the previous study of survivor rate of the snail under extreme temperatures by Hong Qingbiao. Meteorological data from FAO and Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources Research, CAS was used to calculate the schistosome transmission index by the new model in the schistosomiasis epidemic region of China, and the result was re-classified into transmission index classes. The new model changed the class of "epidemic area" into that of "non-epidemic area" in the regions of the southern Henan province, the northern Anhui province and the middle Jiangsu province by transmission index threshold of 900. The geographic boundary between the epidemic and the non-epidemic regions was found fitly to coincide with the -2 °C isotherm of January in China, whereas the underpinning cause needs to be further explored in the future. Finally discussed was the calculation result of this meteorological model having some difference from actual epidemiology as more factors of relevance could be considered to be incorporated into the model, also discussed were a few questions concerning the model itself and the possible future improvement directions. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.