File Download
  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions

TitleSerial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions
Authors
Keywordsbasic reproduction number
Betacoronavirus
China
Coronavirus infection
forecasting
Issue Date2020
PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org
Citation
Science, 2020, v. 369 n. 6507, p. 1106-1109 How to Cite?
AbstractStudies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters including serial interval distributions, i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain, and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month (January 9 to February 13, 2020). This change is driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time, provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/286049
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 44.7
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 11.902
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorAli, ST-
dc.contributor.authorWang, L-
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY-
dc.contributor.authorXu, XK-
dc.contributor.authorDu, Z-
dc.contributor.authorWu, Y-
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GM-
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ-
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-31T06:58:22Z-
dc.date.available2020-08-31T06:58:22Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.citationScience, 2020, v. 369 n. 6507, p. 1106-1109-
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/286049-
dc.description.abstractStudies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters including serial interval distributions, i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain, and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month (January 9 to February 13, 2020). This change is driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time, provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org-
dc.relation.ispartofScience-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectbasic reproduction number-
dc.subjectBetacoronavirus-
dc.subjectChina-
dc.subjectCoronavirus infection-
dc.subjectforecasting-
dc.titleSerial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailAli, ST: alist15@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityAli, ST=rp02673-
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349-
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460-
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/science.abc9004-
dc.identifier.pmid32694200-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC7402628-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85089812109-
dc.identifier.hkuros313555-
dc.identifier.volume369-
dc.identifier.issue6507-
dc.identifier.spage1106-
dc.identifier.epage1109-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000567522200046-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-
dc.identifier.issnl0036-8075-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats