File Download

There are no files associated with this item.

  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy

TitleMortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy
Authors
KeywordsProjected mortality
Extreme heat
WRF
Urban health risk
Community planning
Issue Date2020
PublisherSpringer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=0921-030x
Citation
Natural Hazards, 2020, Epub 2020-05-21 How to Cite?
AbstractIn this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/283335
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 3.3
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.797
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorHo, HC-
dc.contributor.authorWai, KM-
dc.contributor.authorHe, M-
dc.contributor.authorChan, TC-
dc.contributor.authorDeng, C-
dc.contributor.authorWong, MS-
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-22T02:55:10Z-
dc.date.available2020-06-22T02:55:10Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.citationNatural Hazards, 2020, Epub 2020-05-21-
dc.identifier.issn0921-030X-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/283335-
dc.description.abstractIn this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherSpringer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=0921-030x-
dc.relation.ispartofNatural Hazards-
dc.rightsThis is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in [insert journal title]. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/[insert DOI]-
dc.subjectProjected mortality-
dc.subjectExtreme heat-
dc.subjectWRF-
dc.subjectUrban health risk-
dc.subjectCommunity planning-
dc.titleMortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailHo, HC: hcho21@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityHo, HC=rp02482-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11069-020-04003-x-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85085352259-
dc.identifier.hkuros310545-
dc.identifier.volumeEpub 2020-05-21-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000534716100003-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands-
dc.identifier.issnl0921-030X-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats