The transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009-2010 in India

Abstract

To understand the transmission dynamics of the prevailing pandemic 2009-10, due to the newly emerged pathogen influenza A/H1N1 throughout India, we have analysed the daily reported time-series dataset of the first two waves and a comparative study has been made for different regions of India. In order to quantify the early intensity of the strain, we have estimated basic reproduction number (R 0) through initial intrinsic growth rate method using standard deterministic SEIR model and effective reproduction number (R t) through the stochastic SIR model using Bayesian inference. The estimate of reproduction number for India is 1.46 with 95% CI (1.15, 1.77), whereas for different states, the reproduction number is between 1.03 and 1.75.