Age-period-cohort projection of trends in blood pressure and body mass index in children and adolescents in Hong Kong

Abstract

Background: Blood pressure (BP) and body mass index (BMI) trends during childhood and adolescence are complex, making context-specific projections necessary to inform prevention and presage changes.

Objective: This study aimed to project BP and BMI in Hong Kong Chinese children and adolescents from 2015 to 2024 based on trends in BP and BMI observed from 1996/99 to 2014.

Methods: We decomposed recent trends into sex-specific contributions of age, period and cohort using age-period-cohort linear regression with Bayesian inference and autoregressive priors based on BP in children and adolescents aged 9–18 years from 1999 to 2014 and BMI in those aged 6–18 years from 1996 to 2014. We then used the resultant models to project BP and BMI from 2015 to 2024.

Results: During the study period, systolic BP decreased from 1999 to 2004/5 before gradually increasing to 2014 during childhood (for boys: from 104.6 to 101.9 and then to 103.4 mmHg) and during adolescence. Similar patterns were observed for diastolic BP. BMI generally increased from 1996 to 2009 before falling to 2014 during childhood (e.g. for boys: from 17.2 to 18.0 and then to 17.1 kg/m2). From 2015 onwards, systolic BP was projected to increase in girls, but remain stable in boys. For both sexes, diastolic BP was projected to increase, whereas BMI was projected to decrease to 2024.

Conclusions: In this economically developed Chinese setting, future trends in BP and BMI in children and adolescents are predicted to be divergent, consistent with prior discordant trends in BP and BMI.