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- Publisher Website: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108771
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85072685484
- PMID: 31574448
- WOS: WOS:000497259100025
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Article: Mortality risk and burden associated with temperature variability in China, United Kingdom and United States: Comparative analysis of daily and hourly exposure metrics
Title | Mortality risk and burden associated with temperature variability in China, United Kingdom and United States: Comparative analysis of daily and hourly exposure metrics |
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Authors | |
Keywords | Climate change Temperature variability Mortality risk Mortality burden Attributable fraction |
Issue Date | 2019 |
Publisher | Academic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/envres |
Citation | Environmental Research, 2019, v. 179 n. pt. A, p. article no. 108771 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Background:
Temperature variability (TV) is closely associated with climate change, but there is no unified TV definition worldwide. Two novel composite TV indexes were developed recently by calculating the standard deviations of several days’ daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TVdaily), or hourly mean temperatures (TVhourly).
Objectives:
This study aimed to compare the mortality risks and burden associated with TVdaily and TVhourly using large time-series datasets collected from multiple locations in China, United Kingdom and United States.
Methods:
We collected daily mortality and hourly temperature data through 1987 to 2012 from 63 locations in China (8 communities, 2006–2012), United Kingdom (10 regions, 1990–2012), and USA (45 cities, 1987–2000). TV-mortality associations were investigated using a three-stage analytic approach separately for China, UK, and USA. First, we applied a time-series regression for each location to derive location-specific TV-mortality curves. A second-stage meta-analysis was then performed to pool these estimated associations for each country. Finally, we calculated mortality fraction attributable to TV based on above-described location-specific and pooled estimates.
Results:
Our dataset totally consisted of 23, 089, 328 all-cause death cases, including 93, 750 from China, 7,573,716 from UK and 15, 421, 862 from USA, respectively. In despite of a relatively wide uncertainty in China, approximately linear relationships were consistently identified for TVdaily and TVhourly. In the three countries, generally similar lag patterns of TV effects were consistently observed for TVdaily and TVhourly. A 1 °C rise in TVdaily and TVhourly at lag 0–7 days was associated with mortality increases of 0.93% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.12, 1.74) and 0.97% (0.18, 1.77) in China, 0.33% (0.15, 0.51) and 0.41% (0.21, 0.60) in UK, and 0.55% (0.41, 0.70) and 0.51% (0.35, 0.66) in USA, respectively. Larger attributable fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly, with estimates at 0–10 days of 3.69% (0.51, 6.75) vs. 2.59% (0.10, 5.01) in China, 1.14% (0.54, 1.74) vs. 0.98% (0.55, 1.42) in UK, and 2.57% (1.97, 3.16) vs. 1.67% (1.15, 2.18) in USA, respectively. Our meta-regression analyses indicated higher vulnerability to TV-induced mortality risks in warmer locations.
Conclusions:
Our study added multi-country evidence for increased mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to large temperature variability. Daily and hourly TV exposure metrics produced generally comparable risk effects, but the attributable mortality burden tended to be higher using TVdaily instead of TVhourly. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/278836 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 7.7 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.679 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Y | - |
dc.contributor.author | Xiang, Q | - |
dc.contributor.author | Yu, C | - |
dc.contributor.author | Bao, J | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ho, HC | - |
dc.contributor.author | Sun, S | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ding, Z | - |
dc.contributor.author | Hu, K | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, L | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-10-21T02:14:55Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2019-10-21T02:14:55Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2019 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Environmental Research, 2019, v. 179 n. pt. A, p. article no. 108771 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0013-9351 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/278836 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Background: Temperature variability (TV) is closely associated with climate change, but there is no unified TV definition worldwide. Two novel composite TV indexes were developed recently by calculating the standard deviations of several days’ daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TVdaily), or hourly mean temperatures (TVhourly). Objectives: This study aimed to compare the mortality risks and burden associated with TVdaily and TVhourly using large time-series datasets collected from multiple locations in China, United Kingdom and United States. Methods: We collected daily mortality and hourly temperature data through 1987 to 2012 from 63 locations in China (8 communities, 2006–2012), United Kingdom (10 regions, 1990–2012), and USA (45 cities, 1987–2000). TV-mortality associations were investigated using a three-stage analytic approach separately for China, UK, and USA. First, we applied a time-series regression for each location to derive location-specific TV-mortality curves. A second-stage meta-analysis was then performed to pool these estimated associations for each country. Finally, we calculated mortality fraction attributable to TV based on above-described location-specific and pooled estimates. Results: Our dataset totally consisted of 23, 089, 328 all-cause death cases, including 93, 750 from China, 7,573,716 from UK and 15, 421, 862 from USA, respectively. In despite of a relatively wide uncertainty in China, approximately linear relationships were consistently identified for TVdaily and TVhourly. In the three countries, generally similar lag patterns of TV effects were consistently observed for TVdaily and TVhourly. A 1 °C rise in TVdaily and TVhourly at lag 0–7 days was associated with mortality increases of 0.93% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.12, 1.74) and 0.97% (0.18, 1.77) in China, 0.33% (0.15, 0.51) and 0.41% (0.21, 0.60) in UK, and 0.55% (0.41, 0.70) and 0.51% (0.35, 0.66) in USA, respectively. Larger attributable fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly, with estimates at 0–10 days of 3.69% (0.51, 6.75) vs. 2.59% (0.10, 5.01) in China, 1.14% (0.54, 1.74) vs. 0.98% (0.55, 1.42) in UK, and 2.57% (1.97, 3.16) vs. 1.67% (1.15, 2.18) in USA, respectively. Our meta-regression analyses indicated higher vulnerability to TV-induced mortality risks in warmer locations. Conclusions: Our study added multi-country evidence for increased mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to large temperature variability. Daily and hourly TV exposure metrics produced generally comparable risk effects, but the attributable mortality burden tended to be higher using TVdaily instead of TVhourly. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Academic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/envres | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Environmental Research | - |
dc.subject | Climate change | - |
dc.subject | Temperature variability | - |
dc.subject | Mortality risk | - |
dc.subject | Mortality burden | - |
dc.subject | Attributable fraction | - |
dc.title | Mortality risk and burden associated with temperature variability in China, United Kingdom and United States: Comparative analysis of daily and hourly exposure metrics | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Ho, HC: hcho21@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Ho, HC=rp02482 | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108771 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 31574448 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85072685484 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 308034 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 179 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | pt. A | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. 108771 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. 108771 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000497259100025 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0013-9351 | - |