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Article: Mortality risk and burden associated with temperature variability in China, United Kingdom and United States: Comparative analysis of daily and hourly exposure metrics

TitleMortality risk and burden associated with temperature variability in China, United Kingdom and United States: Comparative analysis of daily and hourly exposure metrics
Authors
KeywordsClimate change
Temperature variability
Mortality risk
Mortality burden
Attributable fraction
Issue Date2019
PublisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/envres
Citation
Environmental Research, 2019, v. 179 n. pt. A, p. article no. 108771 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Temperature variability (TV) is closely associated with climate change, but there is no unified TV definition worldwide. Two novel composite TV indexes were developed recently by calculating the standard deviations of several days’ daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TVdaily), or hourly mean temperatures (TVhourly). Objectives: This study aimed to compare the mortality risks and burden associated with TVdaily and TVhourly using large time-series datasets collected from multiple locations in China, United Kingdom and United States. Methods: We collected daily mortality and hourly temperature data through 1987 to 2012 from 63 locations in China (8 communities, 2006–2012), United Kingdom (10 regions, 1990–2012), and USA (45 cities, 1987–2000). TV-mortality associations were investigated using a three-stage analytic approach separately for China, UK, and USA. First, we applied a time-series regression for each location to derive location-specific TV-mortality curves. A second-stage meta-analysis was then performed to pool these estimated associations for each country. Finally, we calculated mortality fraction attributable to TV based on above-described location-specific and pooled estimates. Results: Our dataset totally consisted of 23, 089, 328 all-cause death cases, including 93, 750 from China, 7,573,716 from UK and 15, 421, 862 from USA, respectively. In despite of a relatively wide uncertainty in China, approximately linear relationships were consistently identified for TVdaily and TVhourly. In the three countries, generally similar lag patterns of TV effects were consistently observed for TVdaily and TVhourly. A 1 °C rise in TVdaily and TVhourly at lag 0–7 days was associated with mortality increases of 0.93% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.12, 1.74) and 0.97% (0.18, 1.77) in China, 0.33% (0.15, 0.51) and 0.41% (0.21, 0.60) in UK, and 0.55% (0.41, 0.70) and 0.51% (0.35, 0.66) in USA, respectively. Larger attributable fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly, with estimates at 0–10 days of 3.69% (0.51, 6.75) vs. 2.59% (0.10, 5.01) in China, 1.14% (0.54, 1.74) vs. 0.98% (0.55, 1.42) in UK, and 2.57% (1.97, 3.16) vs. 1.67% (1.15, 2.18) in USA, respectively. Our meta-regression analyses indicated higher vulnerability to TV-induced mortality risks in warmer locations. Conclusions: Our study added multi-country evidence for increased mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to large temperature variability. Daily and hourly TV exposure metrics produced generally comparable risk effects, but the attributable mortality burden tended to be higher using TVdaily instead of TVhourly.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/278836
ISSN
2019 Impact Factor: 5.715
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.452

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Y-
dc.contributor.authorXiang, Q-
dc.contributor.authorYu, C-
dc.contributor.authorBao, J-
dc.contributor.authorHo, HC-
dc.contributor.authorSun, S-
dc.contributor.authorDing, Z-
dc.contributor.authorHu, K-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, L-
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-21T02:14:55Z-
dc.date.available2019-10-21T02:14:55Z-
dc.date.issued2019-
dc.identifier.citationEnvironmental Research, 2019, v. 179 n. pt. A, p. article no. 108771-
dc.identifier.issn0013-9351-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/278836-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Temperature variability (TV) is closely associated with climate change, but there is no unified TV definition worldwide. Two novel composite TV indexes were developed recently by calculating the standard deviations of several days’ daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TVdaily), or hourly mean temperatures (TVhourly). Objectives: This study aimed to compare the mortality risks and burden associated with TVdaily and TVhourly using large time-series datasets collected from multiple locations in China, United Kingdom and United States. Methods: We collected daily mortality and hourly temperature data through 1987 to 2012 from 63 locations in China (8 communities, 2006–2012), United Kingdom (10 regions, 1990–2012), and USA (45 cities, 1987–2000). TV-mortality associations were investigated using a three-stage analytic approach separately for China, UK, and USA. First, we applied a time-series regression for each location to derive location-specific TV-mortality curves. A second-stage meta-analysis was then performed to pool these estimated associations for each country. Finally, we calculated mortality fraction attributable to TV based on above-described location-specific and pooled estimates. Results: Our dataset totally consisted of 23, 089, 328 all-cause death cases, including 93, 750 from China, 7,573,716 from UK and 15, 421, 862 from USA, respectively. In despite of a relatively wide uncertainty in China, approximately linear relationships were consistently identified for TVdaily and TVhourly. In the three countries, generally similar lag patterns of TV effects were consistently observed for TVdaily and TVhourly. A 1 °C rise in TVdaily and TVhourly at lag 0–7 days was associated with mortality increases of 0.93% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.12, 1.74) and 0.97% (0.18, 1.77) in China, 0.33% (0.15, 0.51) and 0.41% (0.21, 0.60) in UK, and 0.55% (0.41, 0.70) and 0.51% (0.35, 0.66) in USA, respectively. Larger attributable fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly, with estimates at 0–10 days of 3.69% (0.51, 6.75) vs. 2.59% (0.10, 5.01) in China, 1.14% (0.54, 1.74) vs. 0.98% (0.55, 1.42) in UK, and 2.57% (1.97, 3.16) vs. 1.67% (1.15, 2.18) in USA, respectively. Our meta-regression analyses indicated higher vulnerability to TV-induced mortality risks in warmer locations. Conclusions: Our study added multi-country evidence for increased mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to large temperature variability. Daily and hourly TV exposure metrics produced generally comparable risk effects, but the attributable mortality burden tended to be higher using TVdaily instead of TVhourly.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/envres-
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Research-
dc.subjectClimate change-
dc.subjectTemperature variability-
dc.subjectMortality risk-
dc.subjectMortality burden-
dc.subjectAttributable fraction-
dc.titleMortality risk and burden associated with temperature variability in China, United Kingdom and United States: Comparative analysis of daily and hourly exposure metrics-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailHo, HC: hcho21@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityHo, HC=rp02482-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.envres.2019.108771-
dc.identifier.pmid31574448-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85072685484-
dc.identifier.hkuros308034-
dc.identifier.volume179-
dc.identifier.issuept. A-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 108771-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 108771-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-

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