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Article: Bayesian Analysis of the Glacial-Interglacial Methane Increase Constrained by Stable Isotopes and Earth System Modeling

TitleBayesian Analysis of the Glacial-Interglacial Methane Increase Constrained by Stable Isotopes and Earth System Modeling
Authors
KeywordsLast Glacial Maximum
13CH4
greenhouse gas
isotopic discrimination
methane
wetlands
Issue Date2018
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, v. 45, n. 8, p. 3653-3663 How to Cite?
Abstract©2018. The Authors. The observed rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) from 375 ppbv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago) to 680 ppbv during the late preindustrial era is not well understood. Atmospheric chemistry considerations implicate an increase in CH 4 sources, but process-based estimates fail to reproduce the required amplitude. CH 4 stable isotopes provide complementary information that can help constrain the underlying causes of the increase. We combine Earth System model simulations of the late preindustrial and LGM CH 4 cycles, including process-based estimates of the isotopic discrimination of vegetation, in a box model of atmospheric CH 4 and its isotopes. Using a Bayesian approach, we show how model-based constraints and ice core observations may be combined in a consistent probabilistic framework. The resultant posterior distributions point to a strong reduction in wetland and other biogenic CH 4 emissions during the LGM, with a modest increase in the geological source, or potentially natural or anthropogenic fires, accounting for the observed enrichment of δ 13 CH 4 .
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/268651
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 4.6
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.850
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorHopcroft, Peter O.-
dc.contributor.authorValdes, Paul J.-
dc.contributor.authorKaplan, Jed O.-
dc.date.accessioned2019-03-25T08:00:19Z-
dc.date.available2019-03-25T08:00:19Z-
dc.date.issued2018-
dc.identifier.citationGeophysical Research Letters, 2018, v. 45, n. 8, p. 3653-3663-
dc.identifier.issn0094-8276-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/268651-
dc.description.abstract©2018. The Authors. The observed rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) from 375 ppbv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago) to 680 ppbv during the late preindustrial era is not well understood. Atmospheric chemistry considerations implicate an increase in CH 4 sources, but process-based estimates fail to reproduce the required amplitude. CH 4 stable isotopes provide complementary information that can help constrain the underlying causes of the increase. We combine Earth System model simulations of the late preindustrial and LGM CH 4 cycles, including process-based estimates of the isotopic discrimination of vegetation, in a box model of atmospheric CH 4 and its isotopes. Using a Bayesian approach, we show how model-based constraints and ice core observations may be combined in a consistent probabilistic framework. The resultant posterior distributions point to a strong reduction in wetland and other biogenic CH 4 emissions during the LGM, with a modest increase in the geological source, or potentially natural or anthropogenic fires, accounting for the observed enrichment of δ 13 CH 4 .-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofGeophysical Research Letters-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectLast Glacial Maximum-
dc.subject13CH4-
dc.subjectgreenhouse gas-
dc.subjectisotopic discrimination-
dc.subjectmethane-
dc.subjectwetlands-
dc.titleBayesian Analysis of the Glacial-Interglacial Methane Increase Constrained by Stable Isotopes and Earth System Modeling-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2018GL077382-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85047837704-
dc.identifier.volume45-
dc.identifier.issue8-
dc.identifier.spage3653-
dc.identifier.epage3663-
dc.identifier.eissn1944-8007-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000435745500038-
dc.identifier.issnl0094-8276-

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