Speeding up or slowing down : the impact of high speed rail

Abstract

China builds up the world largest high-speed rail network in less than 10 years since its first high-speed rail commenced operation in 2008. China developed its high speed rail systems through the technologies introduced and transferred from foreign countries in early 2000s. As a new comer of high-speed rail industry, China started promote its high-speed rail technologies overseas, in the big picture that China initiated the Belt and Road Initiatives to “enhance regional connectivity and embrace a brighter future”. This dissertation studies the development and expansion of China’s high-speed rail, and various high-speed rail projects China has involved overseas, and research on the enabling and disenabling imperatives for successful export of Chinese high-speed railway technology under the Belt and Road framework. As this dissertation discusses and researches on an open-ended and process-oriented question, inductive reasoning (qualitative) research method is used in this research and it contributes as the main sources of the analysis. SWOT analysis and comparative study are used to study different cases that China has involved for high-speed rail and infrastructure investment overseas. Key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (challenges) for China’s high-speed rail export has been identified. China has gained massive construction and operation experience of high-speed rail during its domestic development in the past 10 years. And it has gradually developed and mastered the technologies of high-speed rail by technology transfer and innovation. In its high-speed rail export, China usually provides a relatively cheaper package and an attractive financing and loan conditions. With one project successfully delivered, China has been aggressively planning, bidding and constructing new projects overseas. However, there are concerns over its safety, long term performance, and its incapability of overseas construction and operation, etc. with some projects being cancelled or discontinued due to rival’s competition, concerns over China’s transparency, unstable economy and regime of host countries, and various other reasons. Moreover, the projects on-going are at a pace that China has not expected, due to reasons include communication difficulties between Chinese professions and local staff, difficulties in statutory processes, difficulties in land acquisition works, etc. Suggestions are given based on the discussion on how avoid the business risks, legal risks and political risks in order to export its high-speed rail technologies and establish its brand in this market. Projects studied in this research indicates that China is taking extreme high financial and economic risks in order to export its high-speed rail technologies by providing loans with low interest rate. A comparative study on China’s past infrastructure investment in Africa is carried out, which indicates these investment does not only export infrastructures, but also helped China to get access to local market and deliver its global impact. It is found that China’s “High-Speed Rail Diplomacy” is more than just to export its rail technologies from economic aspect, but also a political motivate to deliver its global impact and gain access to local market in this region.