Predicting construction duration with typical construction sequences for high-rise buildings

Abstract

Predicting construction duration is a challenging effort because construction schedules are dynamic and uncertain. Various studies have developed mathematical models to predict construction duration based on regression analysis, Monte Carlo method (MCM), and so forth. Yet, regression analysis cannot capture duration uncertainties. Studies normally employ Monte Carlo methods to simulate hundreds to thousands of activities in a project schedule. This can be complicated, time-consuming and unrealistic because the statistical properties of all the activities cannot be readily determined in practice. This research first identified typical construction sequence(s) in condo building construction and then surveyed the statistical distributions of controlling activities on the sequence(s). Two-stage questionnaire surveys and goodness-of-fit statistical tests were conducted to achieve the above objectives. Subsequently a model for predicting the duration of building construction was proposed and applied to a high-rise building project. Results showed that the model reasonably predicts the construction duration for this apartment building. This research is beneficial for practitioners to estimate an overall construction schedule of building projects, especially in pre-construction phases. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.