Change in destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in recent decades

Abstract

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. This study investigates changes in the destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) over China during 1975-2014. Using four different TC datasets, it is found that TCs making landfall over east China (TCEC) have tended to be more destructive in recent decades, with a significant increase in the power dissipation index (PDI) after landfall. Both time series analysis and diagnostic analysis reveal that such an increase in the PDI of TCEC is associated with concomitant enhancement in landfall frequency as well as landfall intensity over east China. In contrast, changes in the PDI of TCs making landfall over south China (TCSC) are less apparent. Examination of different TC-related parameters shows no obvious changes in terms of landfall frequency, duration, and maximum intensity of TCSC. Diagnostic analysis further suggests that the reduction in TC occurrence over south China offsets considerably the positive effects of the intensity and the nonlinear term. Further examination of the environmental parameters reveals significant changes in the large-scale steering flow in recent decades, which is characterized by a prominent cyclonic circulation centered over southeast China. The southeasterly flows on the eastern flank of the cyclonic circulation tend to favor subsequent landfall of TCs over east China, resulting in an increase in landfall frequency, which contributes in part to the enhanced PDI of TCs over this region. Meanwhile, the slowing down of the mean translation speed of TCECand the weakening of vertical wind shear coupled with warmer SSTs in the WNP tend to favor the intensification of TCEC, leading to an increase in intensity and hence the PDI of TCs over east China.