Ultra-low fertility in high-income Asian societies : a comparison of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan

Abstract

Currently, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan are high-income economies with the lowest fertility rates in the world. Various pronatalist measures have been put forward in the recent decade to reverse the fertility trends, but with modest impact. The aims of this thesis are: 1) to examine the key drivers behind the dramatic fertility decline; 2) investigate into the determinants of future fertility trajectories; 3) evaluate the current pronatalist policies; 4) and identify the barriers to childbearing. The analytical approaches include time series cluster analysis, stochastic modelling and elasticity analysis, multiple logistic analysis, and decomposition analysis. First, a cluster analysis of the world fertility trends shows that the selected Asian societies, together with the western developed countries, belong to a cluster which is characterized by prolonged sub-replacement fertility, the lowest infant mortality and adolescent fertility, the longest life expectancy, the highest GDP per capita and education, the oldest average age at marriage, and the best performance in Gender Inequality Index. Fertility transitions in the five societies have some commonality and uniqueness with the western countries, indicating that their ultra-low fertility has resulted from the interplay of global, regional, and local driving forces. Second, the fertility elasticity analyses have identified the potential groups of women who are most influential in changing future fertility. The results show that marriage rate is the most important and common determinant in all the five societies. Fertility rates of lower-order births are also crucial factors, especially second birth rate in South Korea, and first birth rate in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. Furthermore, an evaluation of pronatalist policies in Singapore and Taiwan has revealed a mismatch between the actual targeted groups and the potential groups identified by the analyses. Third, to further understand the decision-making process of childbearing at the micro level, fertility intentions were investigated in a parity-specific approach in Hong Kong. The results show that the average ideal parity has shifted to sub-replacement level, indicating that the “two-child family” ideal is waning, and that factors of fertility intention and difficulties in childrearing vary across the actual parities. These findings indicate that formulation of pronatalist policies should consider these parity-specific differences to enhance its effectiveness. Fourth, a decomposition analysis of recent fertility changes in the two mega cities, Hong Kong and Shanghai– shows that fertility reversal over the years 2000-2010 was mainly due to an increase in the marital fertility rates (MFRs), while the decline in nuptiality had a depressing impact. In 2010/2011, Hong Kong had a higher total fertility rate than Shanghai, mainly because of its higher MFR, despite the negative impact from nuptiality. A reduction of first and second births is equally responsible for Shanghai’s lower MFR, indicating the one-child quota has not been used by some married couples. This thesis not only generates insights and understanding into the past, present and future fertility trends of the developed areas in Asia, but also provides policy implications for enhancing pronatalist measures in low-fertility regimes, so as to achieve a sustainable population development.