Research on the coordinated development between metropolitan economy and logistics

Abstract

The rapid development of modern commodity markets and the booming metropolitan economy promote the rise of metropolitan logistics, which is also an important constituent of metropolitan economy. The systematic study on the Coordinated Development between Metropolitan Economy and Logistics (CDMEL) is, on one hand, beneficial to understanding the stimulating and pushing effects that the metropolitan logistics development exerts on economy; on the other hand, it is also conducive to clarifying whether the capability of metropolitan logistics develops harmoniously with its economic development. Therefore, the research firstly interprets the interactive relationships between the Development of Metropolitan Economy and Logistics (DMEL) by analyzing the influence that metropolitan economy exerts on the logistics development in four aspects: 1) growth of demand for logistics, 2) improvement of logistics infrastructure, 3) promotion of professional logistics service and 4) influences on logistics structure, and analyzing the impact that metropolitan logistics has on the economic development in four aspects: 1) optimization of investment environment, 2) promotion of diversified consumption, 3) growth of residents income and 4) improvement of economic-operation efficiency. Secondly, based on the identified influencing factors for the CDMEL, the logical relationship between various influencing factors is constructed by using the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM), upon which the triangular fuzzy method and Bayesian network, as well as the cause chain analysis and sensitivity analysis are applied to determine the key factors and driving force for the realization of the CDMEL. Thirdly, based on the entropy method, the measure model of the CDMEL is built by using the data of the DMEL of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Tianjin as the research subjects. Such measure model aims to evaluate the coordinated degree of the DMEL and guide the coordinated development of metropolitan logistics ability and metropolitan economy. Fourthly, in order to validate the interactive relationships between the DMEL, correlation and regression analysis are conducted. Based on the data of the above five metropolises, and three economic forms, which are regional economic investment, economic capacity and economic strength, this research conducts the correlation analysis and the regression analysis on urban road, total postal business volume and workforce in logistics industry respectively so as to explore the in-depth relation between the DMEL, and push logistics industry development in the right direction.

From the above research conclusions and the compatibility between the metropolitan economic construction and the logistics industry development, drawing on the successful development experiences of domestic and international logistics industry, the constructive suggestions for the DMEL are put forward to proactively guide the direction for the modern metropolitan logistics development and stimulate the potential for the metropolitan economic development. What makes this thesis different is that ISM, triangular fuzzy method, Bayesian networks, and G1 method to identify the key factors are applied in exploring the mutual effects between the DMEL. Besides, the evaluation index system and the measure model for the CDMEL are built and the mutual influencing relationships between the DMEL are analyzed by using the quantitative method based on practical data.