File Download

There are no files associated with this item.

  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Housing Price and Transaction Intensity Correlation in Hong Kong: Implications for Government Housing Policy

TitleHousing Price and Transaction Intensity Correlation in Hong Kong: Implications for Government Housing Policy
Authors
KeywordsGranger causality
Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models
Cointegration
Bounds test
Housing policy
Housing price
Transaction volume
Issue Date2017
PublisherSpringer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=1566-4910
Citation
Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 2017, v. 32 n. 2, p. 269-287 How to Cite?
AbstractExamination of the causal relationship between housing price and transaction intensity helps us understand the housing market dynamics better. The housing market is a very unique asset market as demand for housing comes from both demand for investment return and demand for a shelter/accommodation. Empirical analysis on this causal relationship therefore provides government with important policy considerations. In this paper, we will examine such correlation between housing price movements and transaction intensity in Hong Kong with a core objective of getting a better understanding of the housing market behavior in this city so that more effective government housing policy could be devised. We examine the price–transaction correlation observed in the Hong Kong housing market by means of a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model, with a time series spanning over the period from 1993 to 2014. Without examining other macroeconomic variables such as employment and gross domestic product, our Granger causality test shows a strong evidence, suggesting that housing price Granger causes transaction intensity in the housing market of Hong Kong, but not vice versa. The findings buttressed by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test results on cointegration relationships support our conclusion. Based on these results, we question the current government housing policy which aims mainly at suppressing demand and hence transaction intensity, if the objective of government intervention is to bring housing price level to a more affordable level. Housing policy therefore should aim at effectuating the supply channel so that there is a clearer signal of constant and effective supply of housing units, which will eventually help stabilize housing price.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/229426
ISSN
2020 Impact Factor: 2.414
2020 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.622
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLi, LH-
dc.contributor.authorCheung, KS-
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-23T14:11:05Z-
dc.date.available2016-08-23T14:11:05Z-
dc.date.issued2017-
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Housing and the Built Environment, 2017, v. 32 n. 2, p. 269-287-
dc.identifier.issn1566-4910-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/229426-
dc.description.abstractExamination of the causal relationship between housing price and transaction intensity helps us understand the housing market dynamics better. The housing market is a very unique asset market as demand for housing comes from both demand for investment return and demand for a shelter/accommodation. Empirical analysis on this causal relationship therefore provides government with important policy considerations. In this paper, we will examine such correlation between housing price movements and transaction intensity in Hong Kong with a core objective of getting a better understanding of the housing market behavior in this city so that more effective government housing policy could be devised. We examine the price–transaction correlation observed in the Hong Kong housing market by means of a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model, with a time series spanning over the period from 1993 to 2014. Without examining other macroeconomic variables such as employment and gross domestic product, our Granger causality test shows a strong evidence, suggesting that housing price Granger causes transaction intensity in the housing market of Hong Kong, but not vice versa. The findings buttressed by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test results on cointegration relationships support our conclusion. Based on these results, we question the current government housing policy which aims mainly at suppressing demand and hence transaction intensity, if the objective of government intervention is to bring housing price level to a more affordable level. Housing policy therefore should aim at effectuating the supply channel so that there is a clearer signal of constant and effective supply of housing units, which will eventually help stabilize housing price.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherSpringer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=1566-4910-
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Housing and the Built Environment-
dc.rightsThe final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10901-016-9512-7-
dc.subjectGranger causality-
dc.subjectAutoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models-
dc.subjectCointegration-
dc.subjectBounds test-
dc.subjectHousing policy-
dc.subjectHousing price-
dc.subjectTransaction volume-
dc.titleHousing Price and Transaction Intensity Correlation in Hong Kong: Implications for Government Housing Policy-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailLi, LH: lhli@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityLi, LH=rp01010-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10901-016-9512-7-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85018753699-
dc.identifier.hkuros260917-
dc.identifier.volume32-
dc.identifier.issue2-
dc.identifier.spage269-
dc.identifier.epage287-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000400854300005-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands-
dc.identifier.issnl1566-4910-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats