Age-period-cohort analysis of lung carcinoma in female in Hong Kong : 1983 through 2012

Abstract

Introduction: Lung cancer is the leading cause of death in Hong Kong amongst all communicable and non- communicable disease. Historically, lung cancer was seen mainly in people smoke tobacco. There have been significantly strong evidences supporting the correlation between tobacco smoke and lung cancer. Tobacco smoking in major public places has been banned since 2007. In addition, the air quality is also improving over last decades. However, the incidence of lung cancer continues to rise, with more than 4600 cases reported in 2012. In female particularly, the daily smoker prevalence is lower in female and it seems to be stable over the last decades. The specific trend of lung cancer incidence in female has not been studied since 2004. Therefore, the trend of lung cancer is uncertain.

Aims and Objectives: The aim is to investigate whether the downtrend of lung cancer in substantial during the period of 1983 through 2012. The objective is to describe the trends through parameterization of the effect of age, period and cohort. An exploratory analysis was conducted to study the trend of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of lung.

Method: Lung cancer incidence data was analysed graphically and statistically utilising generalised linear Age- period- cohort model fitting technique with the R package.

Result: The general lung cancer trend in female from 1983 through 2012 was decreasing. The effects of age and cohort are negative but vary over the spectrum of age and cohort respectively. A modest increase in relative risk of lung cancer is seen during 2001 through 2012. An increasing trend of adenocarcinoma and decreasing trend of squamous cell carcinoma are seen.

Conclusion: Lung cancer incidence rate continues to decrease. However, there is a sign of increasing trend of incidence rate of adenocarcinoma. Further research on trend of adenocarcinoma of female in Hong Kong is warranted.