An assessment of the effectiveness of green belt to contain urban sprawl in Hong Kong, 2006-2014

Abstract

Green Belt (“GB”) in Hong Kong is under immense development pressure with the current Government’s intention to increase land supply for housing development. GB’s role to contain urban sprawl is challenged by previous studies as ineffective and is “residual” in nature. By reviewing planning applications within GB zone from 2006-2014, this dissertation aims to analyze the effectiveness of GB in containing urban sprawl by assessing the relationship between Town Planning Board (“TPB”)’s decision on development within GB zone and the Government’s initiatives to increase housing supply. The findings have showed that the TPB has rejected more planning applications within GB from 2013, the year when the Government announced its multi-pronged approach to increase land supply. In terms of spatial distribution, the approval rate in the Metro Area is the highest among all planning sub-regions, where the majority of applications were associated with public utility and Government uses. From a quantitative cross-sectional analysis, this study finds that small house was still the dominant proposed use within the GB area. It is also found that the TPB has strengthened its control over proposed development with site area falling within GB zone only or GB zone with its adjacent rural/recreation/conservation-related area. Meanwhile, more development were approved in application sites covered by both GB and development-related zonings. From the Chi-square test, it is evident that TPB was less discriminative against residential uses compared to other domestic uses such as small house and house. By a multiple regression model and looking into TPB papers of individual cases for their respective approval reasons/ planning considerations, it is found that site area, GFA, number of flats completed within 3 months prior to application, and the number of zonings covering the application site are no longer significant factors in explaining TPB’s approval. In response to the limitations as identified from the analyses, a Strategic Suitability Assessment model is proposed to increase the comprehensiveness and public participation in the GB review process. The limitation of this study includes the exclusion of S.12A applications and the influence of “destroy first, build later” activities on TPB’s decision, and the simplification of the assessment model recommended in the last section. Filling these research gaps will generate a more comprehensive understanding in the effectiveness and role of GB in fulfilling its planning intention to contain urban sprawl in Hong Kong.