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Article: Validation and comparison of nomograms in predicting disease-specific survival for papillary thyroid carcinoma
Title | Validation and comparison of nomograms in predicting disease-specific survival for papillary thyroid carcinoma |
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Authors | |
Issue Date | 2015 |
Publisher | Springer New York LLC. The Journal's web site is located at http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00268/ |
Citation | World Journal of Surgery, 2015, v. 39 n. 8, p. 1951-1958 How to Cite? |
Abstract | BACKGROUND: Nomogram could estimate individualized prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to create and validate a new nomogram and compare it with other published nomograms using a large patient cohort. METHODS: Eight-hundred and forty-nine PTC patients with ≥7 years follow-up were randomly assigned to the development (n = 425) and validation (n = 424) groups. The former was used for developing a nomogram for disease-specific survival (DSS), while the latter was for validating the nomogram by discrimination [or area under curve (AUC)]. AUC of the newly developed nomogram was compared to other published nomograms. RESULTS: The 5- and 10-year risk of dying from PTC were 1.4 and 3.3 %, respectively, while dying from non-PTC-related causes were 2.3 and 5.1 %, respectively. The new nomogram was developed from age, tumor size, multifocality, nodal status and distant metastases. The discrimination was excellent (AUC (95 % CI) for 5- and 10-year DSS were 0.896 (0.683-0.971) and 0.919 (0.871-0.967), respectively). Its predictability was similar to other published nomograms (p > 0.05). Based on the new nomogram, a total score of <28 meant 99.72 % chance of surviving from PTC at 10 years while a score of ≥28 meant 9.09 % chance of dying from PTC at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Using variables from the current tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system, a new nomogram was developed. It exhibited excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year DSS relative to other published nomograms. However, given the excellent prognosis of PTC, the new nomogram was better at ruling out than predicting PTC-related death. Further validation by an external cohort is required. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/209312 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 2.3 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.772 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Lang, HHB | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, CKH | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-04-17T05:06:07Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2015-04-17T05:06:07Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2015 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | World Journal of Surgery, 2015, v. 39 n. 8, p. 1951-1958 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0364-2313 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/209312 | - |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND: Nomogram could estimate individualized prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to create and validate a new nomogram and compare it with other published nomograms using a large patient cohort. METHODS: Eight-hundred and forty-nine PTC patients with ≥7 years follow-up were randomly assigned to the development (n = 425) and validation (n = 424) groups. The former was used for developing a nomogram for disease-specific survival (DSS), while the latter was for validating the nomogram by discrimination [or area under curve (AUC)]. AUC of the newly developed nomogram was compared to other published nomograms. RESULTS: The 5- and 10-year risk of dying from PTC were 1.4 and 3.3 %, respectively, while dying from non-PTC-related causes were 2.3 and 5.1 %, respectively. The new nomogram was developed from age, tumor size, multifocality, nodal status and distant metastases. The discrimination was excellent (AUC (95 % CI) for 5- and 10-year DSS were 0.896 (0.683-0.971) and 0.919 (0.871-0.967), respectively). Its predictability was similar to other published nomograms (p > 0.05). Based on the new nomogram, a total score of <28 meant 99.72 % chance of surviving from PTC at 10 years while a score of ≥28 meant 9.09 % chance of dying from PTC at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Using variables from the current tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system, a new nomogram was developed. It exhibited excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year DSS relative to other published nomograms. However, given the excellent prognosis of PTC, the new nomogram was better at ruling out than predicting PTC-related death. Further validation by an external cohort is required. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Springer New York LLC. The Journal's web site is located at http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00268/ | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | World Journal of Surgery | - |
dc.rights | The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-015-3044-2 | - |
dc.title | Validation and comparison of nomograms in predicting disease-specific survival for papillary thyroid carcinoma | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Lang, HHB: blang@hkucc.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wong, CKH: carlosho@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Lang, HHB=rp01828 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Wong, CKH=rp01931 | - |
dc.description.nature | postprint | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s00268-015-3044-2 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 25809064 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-84937643697 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 242873 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 39 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 8 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 1951 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 1958 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000357690700015 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0364-2313 | - |