An assessment of potential future sea-level rise and its impacts on coastal development in Hong Kong

Abstract

The aim of this project is to study the impact of future sea level rise on coastal development in Hong Kong and to review current marine design work standard of Port Work Design Manual. Projection of sea level rise to 2060 and 2099 from past tide gauge records has been carried out in this study. The recent redevelopment area, Kai Tak (Old airport), is chosen as study area. Data has been obtained from Hong Kong Observatory, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), Lands Department and Civil Engineering and Development Department to reconstruct and project the past and future sea level change in Hong Kong respectively. Global and local sea level are expected to rise in the 20th century from past studies. The increasing acceleration of sea level rise in my projection has an significant implication to Kai Tak area that existing formation level of reclaimed land and current marine design work standard for redevelopment may not be adequate to resist coastal flooding and inundation associated with sea level change in the near future. By 2099, Kai Tak area may be flooded in extreme cases, which is an issue that upgrading existing marine structure and reviewing current marine design standard needs immediate attention.