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Article: Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan

TitleAge-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan
Authors
Issue Date2013
PublisherHindawi Publishing Corporation. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm/
Citation
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2013, v. 2013, article no. 637064, p. 1-8 How to Cite?
AbstractThe total number of influenza cases with medical attendance has been estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan under a random sampling assumption of sentinel medical institutions among the total medical institutions. The 2009 pandemic offered a research opportunity to validate the sentinel-based estimation method using the estimated proportion of infections measured by the population-wide seroepidemiological survey employing hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay. For the entire population, we estimated the age-standardized proportion of infections at 28.5% and 23.5% using cut-off values of HI titer at 1 : 20 and 1 : 40, respectively. Investigating the age profiles, we show that the estimated influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with medical attendance exceeded the estimated infections among those aged from 0 to 19 years, indicating an overestimation of the magnitude by sentinel-based estimation method. The ratio of estimated cases to estimated infections decreased as a function of age. Examining the geographic distributions, no positive correlation was identified between the estimated cases and infections. Our findings indicate a serious technical limitation of the so-called multiplier method in appropriately quantifying the risk of influenza due to limited specificity of ILI and reporting bias. A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/181755
ISSN
2021 Impact Factor: 2.809
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorMizumoto, K-
dc.contributor.authorYamamoto, T-
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, H-
dc.date.accessioned2013-03-19T03:55:52Z-
dc.date.available2013-03-19T03:55:52Z-
dc.date.issued2013-
dc.identifier.citationComputational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2013, v. 2013, article no. 637064, p. 1-8-
dc.identifier.issn1748-670X-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/181755-
dc.description.abstractThe total number of influenza cases with medical attendance has been estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan under a random sampling assumption of sentinel medical institutions among the total medical institutions. The 2009 pandemic offered a research opportunity to validate the sentinel-based estimation method using the estimated proportion of infections measured by the population-wide seroepidemiological survey employing hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay. For the entire population, we estimated the age-standardized proportion of infections at 28.5% and 23.5% using cut-off values of HI titer at 1 : 20 and 1 : 40, respectively. Investigating the age profiles, we show that the estimated influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with medical attendance exceeded the estimated infections among those aged from 0 to 19 years, indicating an overestimation of the magnitude by sentinel-based estimation method. The ratio of estimated cases to estimated infections decreased as a function of age. Examining the geographic distributions, no positive correlation was identified between the estimated cases and infections. Our findings indicate a serious technical limitation of the so-called multiplier method in appropriately quantifying the risk of influenza due to limited specificity of ILI and reporting bias. A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherHindawi Publishing Corporation. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm/-
dc.relation.ispartofComputational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.titleAge-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H: nishiura@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1155/2013/637064-
dc.identifier.pmid23509599-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3594908-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84874923035-
dc.identifier.hkuros213700-
dc.identifier.volume2013-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 637064, p. 1-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 637064, p. 8-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000315528000001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-
dc.identifier.issnl1748-670X-

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