Moisture variability across China and Mongolia: 1951-2005

Abstract

Moisture variability across China and Mongolia (hereafter, CM) during 1951-2005 was investigated using the recently developed monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. In total there are 206 PDSI grid points across CM, based on a 2.5° × 2.5° gridding system. For CM as a whole a significant decreasing trend in mean moisture availability was observed during 1951-2005, but with strong decadal (17.1-year) and interannual (5.0-year, 3.2-year, 2.4-2.8 year) variations. The areas affected by moderate and severe moisture deficit over CM have increased significantly since the mid-1950s. In contrast, there is a significant decreasing trend for areas affected by moderate wetness since the mid-1950s, and no significant trend was found for the areas affected by severe wetness. Ten moisture-related spatial patterns were objectively defined for CM using rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis. These patterns are related to distinct geographical areas and are associated with distinct temporal variations. Four of these patterns, in Northeast China (NE), North China (NC), Central China (CC), and East China (EC), generally demonstrate a significant decreasing trend in moisture availability. Two patterns located in western areas of Northwest China (NW) and the Tibetan Plateau (TP) show a significant moisture increase, while four patterns in Mongolia (MN), far western China (FW), South China (SC), and Southwest China (SW) do not have significant moisture trends during 1951-2005. Based on REOF results we propose that CM should be divided into ten coherent moisture divisions. Moisture variations within each division are generally coherent, but may show either similar or contrasting covariability with adjacent divisions. © Springer-Verlag 2008.