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Article: An improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution

TitleAn improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution
Authors
Lau, HSLau, AHLZhang, Y
KeywordsEstimating Mean
Estimating Standard Deviation
Pert-Type Estimation
Subjective Estimation
Using Fractiles
Issue Date1997
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
Citation
Journal Of Forecasting, 1997, v. 16 n. 2, p. 83-95 How to Cite?
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199703)16:2<83::AID-FOR646>3.0.CO;2-W
AbstractThe literature offers many formulas for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known example is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlying assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. We then develop new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately than the currently available formulas. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177942
ISSN
0277-6693
2023 Impact Factor: 3.4
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.885
ISI Accession Number ID
WOS:A1997WP38300002
References
References in Scopus

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLau, HSen_US
dc.contributor.authorLau, AHLen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Yen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T09:40:55Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-19T09:40:55Z-
dc.date.issued1997en_US
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Forecasting, 1997, v. 16 n. 2, p. 83-95en_US
dc.identifier.issn0277-6693en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177942-
dc.description.abstractThe literature offers many formulas for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known example is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlying assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. We then develop new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately than the currently available formulas. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966en_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectEstimating Meanen_US
dc.subjectEstimating Standard Deviationen_US
dc.subjectPert-Type Estimationen_US
dc.subjectSubjective Estimationen_US
dc.subjectUsing Fractilesen_US
dc.titleAn improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distributionen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailLau, AHL: ahlau@business.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityLau, AHL=rp01072en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199703)16:2<83::AID-FOR646>3.0.CO;2-W-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-18944401522en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-18944401522&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume16en_US
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.spage83en_US
dc.identifier.epage95en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:A1997WP38300002-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, HS=7201497264en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, AHL=7202626080en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridZhang, Y=15072359600en_US
dc.identifier.issnl0277-6693-

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