Clinico-biochemical prediction of biliary cause of acute pancreatitis in the era of endoscopic ultrasonography

Abstract

Background: Occult biliary stones escape detection on conventional investigations, and clinico-biochemical systems proposed for predicting biliary pancreatitis has low predictive values. Aim: To evaluate the accuracy of clinico-biochemical parameters for prediction of biliary pancreatitis in patients undergoing endoscopic ultrasonography. Methods: Early endoscopic ultrasonography was performed on 139 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis within 24 h of admission. The aetiologies of all patients were determined after complete evaluations, and clinico-biochemical characteristics of patients with a biliary cause (biliary group) and non-biliary causes (non-biliary group) were compared. Results: Biliary pancreatitis was diagnosed in 107 patients and 32 patients had non-biliary causes. The biliary group belonged to a significantly older age group, had a female predominance, significantly more derangement of liver function and a higher incidence of severe attack of acute pancreatitis. On multivariate analysis, female sex, age >58 years and serum alanine aminotransferase >150 U/L were independent predictive factors for biliary cause of acute pancreatitis. Using these three factors for prediction of biliary cause, the sensitivity was 93% and overall accuracy was 85%. Conclusion: Clinico-biochemical prediction for biliary cause of acute pancreatitis improves in the era of endoscopic ultrasonography with a higher sensitivity and overall accuracy. In centres where endoscopic ultrasonography is inaccessible or local expertise is unavailable, clinico-biochemical prediction of biliary cause of acute pancreatitis may provide a useful alternative in the initial management of this group of patients. © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.