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Article: Forecasting construction durations for public housing projects: A Hong Kong perspective

TitleForecasting construction durations for public housing projects: A Hong Kong perspective
Authors
Issue Date1999
PublisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/buildenv
Citation
Building And Environment, 1999, v. 34 n. 5, p. 633-646 How to Cite?
AbstractThe past thirty years have seen a great surge of international attention and discussion in the domain of construction time performance of building projects. Demand for residential construction has been continually increasing in Hong Kong since the 1950s, while an accelerated demand has been envisaged in the next few years up to 2001. This paper is based on the findings of the third survey in an investigation which aimed at determining a group of critical factors that affect construction durations of building projects in Hong Kong. This stage of the study attempted to generate standards (norms) for overall completion periods of public housing blocks, by modelling the durations of the primary work packages in the building construction process, i.e. piling, pile caps/raft, superstructure, EandM services, finishes and their respective sequential start-start lag times, in terms of the identified sets of critical factors (significant variables). Data from 15 case studies of standard New Cruciform type housing blocks was collected from the client and contractors. Multiple Linear Regression was applied in analyzing the project data and formulating a construction duration model. The forecasting performance of the model was next evaluated using an independent (new) set of project information from the client, in terms of a relative measure known as the Percentage Error. Both the general applications and drawbacks of the model are briefly presented and examined herein. The low values of percentage error (less than about ±10%) for overall construction durations confirmed that the model can be a reliable tool for predicting the construction durations of public housing projects in Hong Kong; and the research methodology used could well be extended to similar studies and duration forecasts in other sub-sectors in Hong Kong, as well as in other countries.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/150115
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 7.1
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.647
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChan, DWMen_US
dc.contributor.authorKumaraswamy, MMen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:01:39Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:01:39Z-
dc.date.issued1999en_US
dc.identifier.citationBuilding And Environment, 1999, v. 34 n. 5, p. 633-646en_US
dc.identifier.issn0360-1323en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/150115-
dc.description.abstractThe past thirty years have seen a great surge of international attention and discussion in the domain of construction time performance of building projects. Demand for residential construction has been continually increasing in Hong Kong since the 1950s, while an accelerated demand has been envisaged in the next few years up to 2001. This paper is based on the findings of the third survey in an investigation which aimed at determining a group of critical factors that affect construction durations of building projects in Hong Kong. This stage of the study attempted to generate standards (norms) for overall completion periods of public housing blocks, by modelling the durations of the primary work packages in the building construction process, i.e. piling, pile caps/raft, superstructure, EandM services, finishes and their respective sequential start-start lag times, in terms of the identified sets of critical factors (significant variables). Data from 15 case studies of standard New Cruciform type housing blocks was collected from the client and contractors. Multiple Linear Regression was applied in analyzing the project data and formulating a construction duration model. The forecasting performance of the model was next evaluated using an independent (new) set of project information from the client, in terms of a relative measure known as the Percentage Error. Both the general applications and drawbacks of the model are briefly presented and examined herein. The low values of percentage error (less than about ±10%) for overall construction durations confirmed that the model can be a reliable tool for predicting the construction durations of public housing projects in Hong Kong; and the research methodology used could well be extended to similar studies and duration forecasts in other sub-sectors in Hong Kong, as well as in other countries.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/buildenven_US
dc.relation.ispartofBuilding and Environmenten_US
dc.titleForecasting construction durations for public housing projects: A Hong Kong perspectiveen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailKumaraswamy, MM: mohan@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityKumaraswamy, MM=rp00126en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0032628068en_US
dc.identifier.hkuros48104-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0032628068&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume34en_US
dc.identifier.issue5en_US
dc.identifier.spage633en_US
dc.identifier.epage646en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000080056900010-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, DWM=15724643800en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKumaraswamy, MM=35566270600en_US
dc.identifier.issnl0360-1323-

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