Modelling the mode choice behaviour of visitors to Expo 2010

Abstract

The purpose of the present study was to obtain a better understanding of the mode choice behaviour of visitors to Expo 2010 Shanghai and the effectiveness of various traffic management policies to reduce private transport use. Due to the possible range of survey respondents, a two-stage gradual stated preference survey method was used. Based on a large-scale stated preference survey conducted among tourists in an airport, a train station and highway service stations in Shanghai, three versions of a mixed logit model for local and out-of-town visitors were developed. The results suggest that local visitors were more sensitive to travel cost than total travel time, whereas out-of-town visitors were particularly concerned about total travel time. A scenario analysis reveals that establishing a restricted traffic zone, adjusting parking rates and providing priority lanes for Expo buses had different effects on trip mode choice. These policies should thus be implemented in combination to achieve the aim of reducing private transport use to less than 10%. An additional finding is that the Expo shuttle bus is a more attractive public transport mode than the subway among Expo visitors.