Applying Z-score model to distinguish insolvent construction companies in China

Abstract

Fierce competition in the construction industry in China in recent years has brought many challenges to construction contractors. It is important that any potential company insolvency be recognized at the earliest opportunity. Using financial ratios and the Altman Z-score modelling methodology, an insolvency warning model is developed in order to evaluate the performance of construction contractors in China. The model derived from this study has consistent predictability based on a three-year window of data. It combines seven financial ratios, covering a company's finance of operation, profitability, solvency and cash flow. A single performance index is derived to differentiate whether a company has good financial standing or exhibits characteristics of insolvent companies. A mechanism to detect insolvent contractors is proposed for sustaining corporate development in construction. It is recommended for a contractor to develop a complete precaution system of financial crisis and have a regular checking of the key financial ratios as well as operation status so as to avoid insolvency. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.