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- Publisher Website: 10.1186/1742-4682-5-20
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Article: Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox
Title | Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox | ||||||
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Authors | |||||||
Keywords | Chemicals And Cas Registry Numbers | ||||||
Issue Date | 2008 | ||||||
Publisher | BioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tbiomed.com/home/ | ||||||
Citation | Theoretical Biology And Medical Modelling, 2008, v. 5 How to Cite? | ||||||
Abstract | Background. Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. Main findings. First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3-5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions. Conclusion. Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically. © 2008 Nishiura et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. | ||||||
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/134216 | ||||||
ISSN | 2020 Impact Factor: 2.432 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.303 | ||||||
PubMed Central ID | |||||||
ISI Accession Number ID |
Funding Information: This review would not have been possible without technical support and input from Klaus Dietz and Isao Arita. This study was in part supported by European Union project INFTRANS (FP6 STREP; contract no. 513715). The study of HN was supported by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO, ALW-IPY-NL/06-15D). | ||||||
References |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Nishiura, H | en_HK |
dc.contributor.author | Brockmann, SO | en_HK |
dc.contributor.author | Eichner, M | en_HK |
dc.date.accessioned | 2011-06-13T07:20:52Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2011-06-13T07:20:52Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2008 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.citation | Theoretical Biology And Medical Modelling, 2008, v. 5 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issn | 1742-4682 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/134216 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Background. Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. Main findings. First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3-5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions. Conclusion. Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically. © 2008 Nishiura et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. | en_HK |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | BioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tbiomed.com/home/ | en_HK |
dc.relation.ispartof | Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling | en_HK |
dc.subject | Chemicals And Cas Registry Numbers | en_US |
dc.title | Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox | en_HK |
dc.type | Article | en_HK |
dc.identifier.email | Nishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hk | en_HK |
dc.identifier.authority | Nishiura, H=rp01488 | en_HK |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1186/1742-4682-5-20 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.pmid | 18715509 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC2538509 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-51849119215 | en_HK |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-51849119215&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_HK |
dc.identifier.volume | 5 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000265644300001 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United Kingdom | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Nishiura, H=7005501836 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Brockmann, SO=7004122338 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Eichner, M=26643365500 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.citeulike | 3146523 | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1742-4682 | - |