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- Publisher Website: 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.08.005
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-54349112795
- PMID: 18768142
- WOS: WOS:000261540600010
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Article: The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model
Title | The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model |
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Authors | |
Keywords | Species Index: Variola Virus |
Issue Date | 2008 |
Publisher | Elsevier Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mbs |
Citation | Mathematical Biosciences, 2008, v. 216 n. 1, p. 77-89 How to Cite? |
Abstract | In this paper, we develop the theory of a state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and apply it to examine the asymptomatic transmission model. We formulate a renewal integral equation system to describe the invasion of infectious diseases into a multistate class age structured host population. We define the state-reproduction number for a class age structured system, which is the net reproduction number of a specific host type and which plays an analogous role to the type-reproduction number [M.G. Roberts, J.A.P. Heesterbeek, A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270 (2003) 1359; J.A.P. Heesterbeek, M.G. Roberts, The type-reproduction number T in models for infectious disease control, Math. Biosci. 206 (2007) 3] in discussing the critical level of public health intervention. The renewal equation formulation permits computations not only of the state-reproduction number, but also of the generation time and the intrinsic growth rate of infectious diseases. Subsequently, the basic theory is applied to capture the dynamics of a directly transmitted disease within two types of infected populations, i.e., asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, in which the symptomatic class is observable and hence a target host of the majority of interventions. The state-reproduction number of the symptomatic host is derived and expressed as a measurable quantity, leading to discussion on the critical level of case isolation. The serial interval and other epidemiologic indices are computed, clarifying the parameters on which these indices depend. As a practical example, we illustrate the eradication threshold for case isolation of smallpox. The generation time and serial interval are comparatively examined for pandemic influenza. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/134214 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 1.9 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.639 |
ISI Accession Number ID | |
References |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Inaba, H | en_HK |
dc.contributor.author | Nishiura, H | en_HK |
dc.date.accessioned | 2011-06-13T07:20:52Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2011-06-13T07:20:52Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2008 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.citation | Mathematical Biosciences, 2008, v. 216 n. 1, p. 77-89 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issn | 0025-5564 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/134214 | - |
dc.description.abstract | In this paper, we develop the theory of a state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and apply it to examine the asymptomatic transmission model. We formulate a renewal integral equation system to describe the invasion of infectious diseases into a multistate class age structured host population. We define the state-reproduction number for a class age structured system, which is the net reproduction number of a specific host type and which plays an analogous role to the type-reproduction number [M.G. Roberts, J.A.P. Heesterbeek, A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270 (2003) 1359; J.A.P. Heesterbeek, M.G. Roberts, The type-reproduction number T in models for infectious disease control, Math. Biosci. 206 (2007) 3] in discussing the critical level of public health intervention. The renewal equation formulation permits computations not only of the state-reproduction number, but also of the generation time and the intrinsic growth rate of infectious diseases. Subsequently, the basic theory is applied to capture the dynamics of a directly transmitted disease within two types of infected populations, i.e., asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, in which the symptomatic class is observable and hence a target host of the majority of interventions. The state-reproduction number of the symptomatic host is derived and expressed as a measurable quantity, leading to discussion on the critical level of case isolation. The serial interval and other epidemiologic indices are computed, clarifying the parameters on which these indices depend. As a practical example, we illustrate the eradication threshold for case isolation of smallpox. The generation time and serial interval are comparatively examined for pandemic influenza. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. | en_HK |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Elsevier Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mbs | en_HK |
dc.relation.ispartof | Mathematical Biosciences | en_HK |
dc.subject | Species Index: Variola Virus | en_US |
dc.subject.mesh | Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control | en_HK |
dc.subject.mesh | Humans | en_HK |
dc.subject.mesh | Influenza, Human - epidemiology - transmission | en_HK |
dc.subject.mesh | Models, Statistical | en_HK |
dc.subject.mesh | Public Health - methods | en_HK |
dc.subject.mesh | Smallpox - epidemiology - transmission | en_HK |
dc.title | The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model | en_HK |
dc.type | Article | en_HK |
dc.identifier.email | Nishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hk | en_HK |
dc.identifier.authority | Nishiura, H=rp01488 | en_HK |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.08.005 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.pmid | 18768142 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-54349112795 | en_HK |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-54349112795&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_HK |
dc.identifier.volume | 216 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issue | 1 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.spage | 77 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.epage | 89 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000261540600010 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Inaba, H=7202113278 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Nishiura, H=7005501836 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0025-5564 | - |