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- Publisher Website: 10.3390/ijerph7010291
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-75449118270
- PMID: 20195446
- WOS: WOS:000274000900019
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Article: Correcting the actual reproduction number: A simple method to estimate R0 from early epidemic growth data
Title | Correcting the actual reproduction number: A simple method to estimate R0 from early epidemic growth data | ||||
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Authors | |||||
Keywords | AIDS Basic reproduction number Epidemiology Estimation techniques HIV Infectious diseases Statistical model Transmission | ||||
Issue Date | 2010 | ||||
Publisher | Molecular Diversity Preservation International. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.mdpi.org/ijerph | ||||
Citation | International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 2010, v. 7 n. 1, p. 291-302 How to Cite? | ||||
Abstract | The basic reproduction number, R0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R0 using a spreadsheet. © 2010 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International. | ||||
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/134203 | ||||
ISSN | 2021 Impact Factor: 4.614 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.808 | ||||
PubMed Central ID | |||||
ISI Accession Number ID |
Funding Information: The work of H. Nishiura was supported by the JST PRESTO program. | ||||
References |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Nishiura, H | en_HK |
dc.date.accessioned | 2011-06-13T07:20:48Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2011-06-13T07:20:48Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2010 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.citation | International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 2010, v. 7 n. 1, p. 291-302 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issn | 1660-4601 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/134203 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The basic reproduction number, R0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R0 using a spreadsheet. © 2010 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International. | en_HK |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Molecular Diversity Preservation International. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.mdpi.org/ijerph | en_HK |
dc.relation.ispartof | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | en_HK |
dc.subject | AIDS | en_HK |
dc.subject | Basic reproduction number | en_HK |
dc.subject | Epidemiology | en_HK |
dc.subject | Estimation techniques | en_HK |
dc.subject | HIV | en_HK |
dc.subject | Infectious diseases | en_HK |
dc.subject | Statistical model | en_HK |
dc.subject | Transmission | en_HK |
dc.title | Correcting the actual reproduction number: A simple method to estimate R0 from early epidemic growth data | en_HK |
dc.type | Article | en_HK |
dc.identifier.email | Nishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hk | en_HK |
dc.identifier.authority | Nishiura, H=rp01488 | en_HK |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3390/ijerph7010291 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.pmid | 20195446 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC2819789 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-75449118270 | en_HK |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-75449118270&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_HK |
dc.identifier.volume | 7 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issue | 1 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.spage | 291 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.epage | 302 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000274000900019 | - |
dc.publisher.place | Switzerland | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Nishiura, H=7005501836 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.citeulike | 6572396 | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1660-4601 | - |