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Article: Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China

TitleQuantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China
Authors
KeywordsAnnual time series
Bayesian methods
Climate variation
Human impact
Chaobai basin
Issue Date2009
PublisherAmerican Geophysical Union.
Citation
Water Resources Research, 2009, v. 45 n. 7 How to Cite?
AbstractThe Chaobai River basin in northern China consists of two major tributaries, the Chao River and Bai River. Monthly observations of precipitation, streamfiow, and panevaporation data are available for 35 years (1961-1966 and 1973-2001). Using the annual time series of the observed streamfiow, one break point at 1979 is detected and is adopted to divide the data set into two study periods, the "before" and "after" periods marking the onset of significant anthropogenic alteration of the flow (reservoirs and silt retention dams, five times increase in population) and significant changes in land use (conversion to terraced fields versus sloping fields). The distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) was used to evaluate the water resources of the area. Furthermore, the Bayesian method used by Engeland et al. (2005) was used in this paper to evaluate two uncertainty sources (i.e., the model parameter and model structure) and for assessing the DTVGM's performance over the Chaobai River basin. Comparing the annual precipitation means over 13 years (1961-1966 and 1973-1979), the means of the second period (1980-2001) decreased by 5.4% and 4.9% in the Chao River and Bai River basins, respectively. However, the related annual runoff decreased by 40.3% and 52.8%, respectively, a much greater decline than exhibited by precipitation. Through the monthly model simulation and the fixing-changing method, it is determined that decreases in runoff between the two periods can be attributed to 35% (31%) from climate variations and 68% (70%) from human activities in the Chao River (Bai River). Thus, human impact exerts a dominant influence upon runoff decline in the Chaobai River basin compared to climate. This study enhances our understanding of the relative roles of climate variations and human activities on runoff. © 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/58587
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.792
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.661
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
National Natural Science Foundation of China40730632
40671035
President's Award Special Fund of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
Special Fund of the Ministry of Science and Technology, China2006DFA21890
Funding Information:

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40730632/40671035), the President's Award Special Fund of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Special Fund of the Ministry of Science and Technology, China (2006DFA21890). The authors are also grateful for the valuable review comments and suggestions from the three anonymous reviewers.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWang, Gen_HK
dc.contributor.authorXia, Jen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChe, Jen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-31T03:32:58Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-31T03:32:58Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationWater Resources Research, 2009, v. 45 n. 7en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0043-1397en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/58587-
dc.description.abstractThe Chaobai River basin in northern China consists of two major tributaries, the Chao River and Bai River. Monthly observations of precipitation, streamfiow, and panevaporation data are available for 35 years (1961-1966 and 1973-2001). Using the annual time series of the observed streamfiow, one break point at 1979 is detected and is adopted to divide the data set into two study periods, the "before" and "after" periods marking the onset of significant anthropogenic alteration of the flow (reservoirs and silt retention dams, five times increase in population) and significant changes in land use (conversion to terraced fields versus sloping fields). The distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) was used to evaluate the water resources of the area. Furthermore, the Bayesian method used by Engeland et al. (2005) was used in this paper to evaluate two uncertainty sources (i.e., the model parameter and model structure) and for assessing the DTVGM's performance over the Chaobai River basin. Comparing the annual precipitation means over 13 years (1961-1966 and 1973-1979), the means of the second period (1980-2001) decreased by 5.4% and 4.9% in the Chao River and Bai River basins, respectively. However, the related annual runoff decreased by 40.3% and 52.8%, respectively, a much greater decline than exhibited by precipitation. Through the monthly model simulation and the fixing-changing method, it is determined that decreases in runoff between the two periods can be attributed to 35% (31%) from climate variations and 68% (70%) from human activities in the Chao River (Bai River). Thus, human impact exerts a dominant influence upon runoff decline in the Chaobai River basin compared to climate. This study enhances our understanding of the relative roles of climate variations and human activities on runoff. © 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union.en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofWater Resources Researchen_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong Licenseen_HK
dc.subjectAnnual time series-
dc.subjectBayesian methods-
dc.subjectClimate variation-
dc.subjectHuman impact-
dc.subjectChaobai basin-
dc.titleQuantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern Chinaen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0043-1397&volume=45&spage=W00A11&epage=&date=2009&atitle=Quantification+of+effects+of+climate+variations+and+human+activities+on+runoff+by+a+monthly+water+balance+model:+A+case+study+of+the+Chaobai+River+basin+in+northern+Chinaen_HK
dc.identifier.emailChe, J:jichen@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityChe, J=rp00098en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2007WR006768en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-69249108514en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros163915en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-69249108514&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume45en_HK
dc.identifier.issue7en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000262385500001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWang, G=7407151078en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridXia, J=7402327199en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChe, J=16443980300en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike6297524-

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