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Article: Age-period-cohort analysis of cervical cancer incidence in Hong Kong from 1972 to 2001 using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods

TitleAge-period-cohort analysis of cervical cancer incidence in Hong Kong from 1972 to 2001 using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods
Authors
KeywordsMedical sciences
Public health and safety
Issue Date2006
PublisherBMJ Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/
Citation
Journal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2006, v. 60 n. 8, p. 712-720 How to Cite?
AbstractObjective: To examine the secular effects of opportunistic screening for cervical cancer in a rich, developed community where most other such populations have long adopted organised screening. Design, setting, and participants: The analysis was based on 15 140 cases of invasive cervical cancer from 1972 to 2001. The effects of chronological age, time period, and birth cohort were decomposed using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Results: The overall age adjusted incidence decreased from 24.9 in 1972-74 to 9.5 per 100,000 in 1999-2001, in a log-linear fashion, yielding an average annual reduction of 4.0% (p<0.001) during the 30 year period. There were two second order and thus identifiable changes: (1) around the mid-1920s cohort curve representing an age-period interaction masquerading as a cohort change that denotes the first availability of Pap testing during the 1960s concentrated among women in their 40s; (2) a hook around the calendar years 1982-83 when cervical cytology became a standard screening test for pregnant women. Conclusions: Hong Kong's cervical cancer rates have declined since Pap tests first became available in the 1960s, most probably because of increasing population coverage over time and in successive generations in a haphazard fashion and punctuated by the systematic introduction of routine cytology as part of antenatal care in the 1980s.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/45466
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.865
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.890
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWoo, PPSen_HK
dc.contributor.authorMcGhee, SMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCheung, ANYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFan, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorMang, Oen_HK
dc.contributor.authorThach, TQen_HK
dc.contributor.authorNgan, HYSen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2007-10-30T06:26:36Z-
dc.date.available2007-10-30T06:26:36Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2006, v. 60 n. 8, p. 712-720en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0143-005Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/45466-
dc.description.abstractObjective: To examine the secular effects of opportunistic screening for cervical cancer in a rich, developed community where most other such populations have long adopted organised screening. Design, setting, and participants: The analysis was based on 15 140 cases of invasive cervical cancer from 1972 to 2001. The effects of chronological age, time period, and birth cohort were decomposed using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Results: The overall age adjusted incidence decreased from 24.9 in 1972-74 to 9.5 per 100,000 in 1999-2001, in a log-linear fashion, yielding an average annual reduction of 4.0% (p<0.001) during the 30 year period. There were two second order and thus identifiable changes: (1) around the mid-1920s cohort curve representing an age-period interaction masquerading as a cohort change that denotes the first availability of Pap testing during the 1960s concentrated among women in their 40s; (2) a hook around the calendar years 1982-83 when cervical cytology became a standard screening test for pregnant women. Conclusions: Hong Kong's cervical cancer rates have declined since Pap tests first became available in the 1960s, most probably because of increasing population coverage over time and in successive generations in a haphazard fashion and punctuated by the systematic introduction of routine cytology as part of antenatal care in the 1980s.en_HK
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dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBMJ Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Epidemiology and Community Healthen_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.rightsJournal of Epidemiology & Community Health. Copyright © B M J Publishing Group.en_HK
dc.subjectMedical sciencesen_HK
dc.subjectPublic health and safetyen_HK
dc.titleAge-period-cohort analysis of cervical cancer incidence in Hong Kong from 1972 to 2001 using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methodsen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0143-005X&volume=60&issue=8&spage=712&epage=720&date=2006&atitle=Age-period-cohort+analysis+of+cervical+cancer+incidence+in+Hong+Kong+from+1972+to+2001+using+maximum+likelihood+and+Bayesian+methodsen_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM:gmleung@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailMcGhee, SM:smmcghee@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailCheung, ANY:anycheun@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailThach, TQ:thach@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailNgan, HYS:hysngan@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityMcGhee, SM=rp00393en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityCheung, ANY=rp00542en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityThach, TQ=rp00450en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNgan, HYS=rp00346en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_HK
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/jech.2005.042275en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid16840762-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2588081-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33746334446en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros118803-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33746334446&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume60en_HK
dc.identifier.issue8en_HK
dc.identifier.spage712en_HK
dc.identifier.epage720en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000239018700014-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWoo, PPS=8426498200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMcGhee, SM=7003288588en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCheung, ANY=54927484100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFan, S=11639038000en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMang, O=6603963663en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridThach, TQ=6602850066en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNgan, HYS=34571944100en_HK

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