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Article: Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study

TitleEffect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study
Authors
Issue Date2014
PublisherThe Lancet Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/lancet
Citation
The Lancet, 2014, v. 383 n. 9916, p. 541-548 How to Cite?
AbstractBACKGROUND: Transmission of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus seems to be predominantly between poultry and people. In the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing--where most human cases of infection have occurred--live poultry markets (LPMs) were closed in April, 2013, soon after the initial outbreak, as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the effect of LPM closure in these cities on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus. METHODS: We obtained information about every laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported in the four cities by June 7, 2013, from a database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data for age, sex, location, residence type (rural or urban area), and dates of illness onset. We obtained information about LPMs from official sources. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incidence of cases reported in each city on the basis of the assumption of a constant force of infection before LPM closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. FINDINGS: 85 human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing by June 7, 2013, of which 60 were included in our main analysis. Closure of LPMs reduced the mean daily number of infections by 99% (95% credibility interval 93-100%) in Shanghai, by 99% (92-100%) in Hangzhou, by 97% (68-100%) in Huzhou, and by 97% (81-100%) in Nanjing. Because LPMs were the predominant source of exposure to avian influenza A H7N9 virus for confirmed cases in these cities, we estimated that the mean incubation period was 3.3 days (1.4-5.7). INTERPRETATION: LPM closures were effective in the control of human risk of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection in the spring of 2013. In the short term, LPM closure should be rapidly implemented in areas where the virus is identified in live poultry or people. In the long term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of market rest days and central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; and the US National Institutes of Health.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/194833
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 44.002
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 14.638
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorYu, Hen_US
dc.contributor.authorWu, JTKen_US
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_US
dc.contributor.authorLiao, Qen_US
dc.contributor.authorFang, Jen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Sen_US
dc.contributor.authorWu, Pen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Hen_US
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHYen_US
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Den_US
dc.contributor.authorNi, MYen_US
dc.contributor.authorPeng, Zen_US
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Len_US
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Hen_US
dc.contributor.authorLuo, Hen_US
dc.contributor.authorLi, Qen_US
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Zen_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yen_US
dc.contributor.authorYang, Wen_US
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-02-17T02:14:41Z-
dc.date.available2014-02-17T02:14:41Z-
dc.date.issued2014en_US
dc.identifier.citationThe Lancet, 2014, v. 383 n. 9916, p. 541-548en_US
dc.identifier.issn0140-6736-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/194833-
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Transmission of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus seems to be predominantly between poultry and people. In the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing--where most human cases of infection have occurred--live poultry markets (LPMs) were closed in April, 2013, soon after the initial outbreak, as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the effect of LPM closure in these cities on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus. METHODS: We obtained information about every laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported in the four cities by June 7, 2013, from a database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data for age, sex, location, residence type (rural or urban area), and dates of illness onset. We obtained information about LPMs from official sources. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incidence of cases reported in each city on the basis of the assumption of a constant force of infection before LPM closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. FINDINGS: 85 human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing by June 7, 2013, of which 60 were included in our main analysis. Closure of LPMs reduced the mean daily number of infections by 99% (95% credibility interval 93-100%) in Shanghai, by 99% (92-100%) in Hangzhou, by 97% (68-100%) in Huzhou, and by 97% (81-100%) in Nanjing. Because LPMs were the predominant source of exposure to avian influenza A H7N9 virus for confirmed cases in these cities, we estimated that the mean incubation period was 3.3 days (1.4-5.7). INTERPRETATION: LPM closures were effective in the control of human risk of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection in the spring of 2013. In the short term, LPM closure should be rapidly implemented in areas where the virus is identified in live poultry or people. In the long term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of market rest days and central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; and the US National Institutes of Health.-
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherThe Lancet Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/lancet-
dc.relation.ispartofThe Lanceten_US
dc.rightsNOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in The Lancet. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in The Lancet, [VOL 383, ISSUE 9916, 2014] DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61904-2-
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Disease Control - methods-
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Diseases, Emerging - prevention and control - transmission-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza in Birds - prevention and control - transmission-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - prevention and control - transmission-
dc.titleEffect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological studyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailWu, JTK: joewu@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailLiao, Q: qyliao11@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailFang, J: vickyf@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailWu, P: pengwu@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailNi, MY: nimy@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityWu, JTK=rp00517en_US
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_US
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349en_US
dc.identifier.authorityNi, MY=rp01639en_US
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61904-2-
dc.identifier.pmid24183056-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84895904260-
dc.identifier.hkuros227777en_US
dc.identifier.volume383-
dc.identifier.issue9916en_US
dc.identifier.spage541en_US
dc.identifier.epage548en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000331136400030-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-

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