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Article: The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response
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TitleThe use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response
 
AuthorsWu, JT1
Cowling, BJ1
 
KeywordsEpidemiological control
Influenza
Mathematical models
 
Issue Date2011
 
PublisherSociety for Experimental Biology and Medicine. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ebmonline.org/
 
CitationExperimental Biology And Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271
 
AbstractInfluenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a realtime tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serological data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. © 2011 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.
 
ISSN1535-3702
2013 Impact Factor: 2.226
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.150
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271
 
PubMed Central IDPMC3178755
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000293877200008
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health1 U54 GM088558
Hong Kong University Grants CommitteeAoE/M-12/06
Funding Information:

This work was supported by the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant no. 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (grant no. AoE/M-12/06).

 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
GrantsControl of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorWu, JT
 
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ
 
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-23T05:58:54Z
 
dc.date.available2011-09-23T05:58:54Z
 
dc.date.issued2011
 
dc.description.abstractInfluenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a realtime tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serological data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. © 2011 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.
 
dc.description.naturelink_to_OA_fulltext
 
dc.identifier.citationExperimental Biology And Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271
 
dc.identifier.citeulike11462180
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271
 
dc.identifier.epage961
 
dc.identifier.hkuros194893
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000293877200008
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health1 U54 GM088558
Hong Kong University Grants CommitteeAoE/M-12/06
Funding Information:

This work was supported by the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant no. 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (grant no. AoE/M-12/06).

 
dc.identifier.issn1535-3702
2013 Impact Factor: 2.226
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.150
 
dc.identifier.issue8
 
dc.identifier.openurl
 
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3178755
 
dc.identifier.pmid21727183
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-79961185982
 
dc.identifier.spage955
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/139871
 
dc.identifier.volume236
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherSociety for Experimental Biology and Medicine. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ebmonline.org/
 
dc.publisher.placeUnited States
 
dc.relation.ispartofExperimental Biology and Medicine
 
dc.relation.projectControl of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.rightsExperimental Biology and Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961. DOI: 10.1258/ebm.2010.010271. This is the final draft, after peer-review, of a manuscript published in Experimental Biology and Medicine. The definitive version, detailed above, is available online at www.rsmjournals.com.
 
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License
 
dc.subject.meshDisaster Planning
 
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks
 
dc.subject.meshInfluenza Vaccines - therapeutic use
 
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - prevention and control - virology
 
dc.subject.meshPandemics
 
dc.subjectEpidemiological control
 
dc.subjectInfluenza
 
dc.subjectMathematical models
 
dc.titleThe use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine