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Article: The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response

TitleThe use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response
Authors
KeywordsEpidemiological control
Influenza
Mathematical models
Issue Date2011
PublisherSociety for Experimental Biology and Medicine. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ebmonline.org/
Citation
Experimental Biology And Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961 How to Cite?
Abstract
Influenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a realtime tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serological data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. © 2011 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/139871
ISSN
2013 Impact Factor: 2.226
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.150
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health1 U54 GM088558
Hong Kong University Grants CommitteeAoE/M-12/06
Funding Information:

This work was supported by the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant no. 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (grant no. AoE/M-12/06).

References
Grants

 

Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWu, JTen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-23T05:58:54Z-
dc.date.available2011-09-23T05:58:54Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_HK
dc.identifier.citationExperimental Biology And Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1535-3702en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/139871-
dc.description.abstractInfluenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a realtime tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serological data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. © 2011 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherSociety for Experimental Biology and Medicine. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ebmonline.org/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofExperimental Biology and Medicineen_HK
dc.rightsExperimental Biology and Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961. DOI: 10.1258/ebm.2010.010271. This is the final draft, after peer-review, of a manuscript published in Experimental Biology and Medicine. The definitive version, detailed above, is available online at www.rsmjournals.com.-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subjectEpidemiological controlen_HK
dc.subjectInfluenzaen_HK
dc.subjectMathematical modelsen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisaster Planning-
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza Vaccines - therapeutic use-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - prevention and control - virology-
dc.subject.meshPandemics-
dc.titleThe use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and responseen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=1535-3702&volume=236&issue=8&spage=955&epage=961&date=2011&atitle=The+use+of+mathematical+models+to+inform+influenza+pandemic+preparedness+and+response-
dc.identifier.emailWu, JT:joewu@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ:bcowling@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityWu, JT=rp00517en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_OA_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1258/ebm.2010.010271en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid21727183en_HK
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3178755-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-79961185982en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros194893en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-79961185982&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume236en_HK
dc.identifier.issue8en_HK
dc.identifier.spage955en_HK
dc.identifier.epage961en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000293877200008-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.relation.projectControl of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWu, JT=7409256423en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCowling, BJ=8644765500en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike11462180-

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