Article: The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response
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- Publisher Website: 10.1258/ebm.2010.010271
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-79961185982
- PMID: 21727183
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| Title | The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Authors | Wu, JT1 Cowling, BJ1 | ||||||
| Keywords | Epidemiological control Influenza Mathematical models | ||||||
| Issue Date | 2011 | ||||||
| Publisher | Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ebmonline.org/ | ||||||
| Citation | Experimental Biology And Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961 [How to Cite?] DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271 | ||||||
| Abstract | Influenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a realtime tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serological data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. © 2011 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine. | ||||||
| ISSN | 1535-3702 2011 Impact Factor: 2.526 2011 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.178 | ||||||
| DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271 | ||||||
| ISI Accession Number ID | WOS:000293877200008
Funding Information: This work was supported by the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant no. 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (grant no. AoE/M-12/06). | ||||||
| PubMed Central ID | PMC3178755 | ||||||
| References | References in Scopus | ||||||
| Grants | Control of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza |
| dc.contributor.author | Wu, JT | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Cowling, BJ | ||||||
| dc.date.accessioned | 2011-09-23T05:58:54Z | ||||||
| dc.date.available | 2011-09-23T05:58:54Z | ||||||
| dc.date.issued | 2011 | ||||||
| dc.description.abstract | Influenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a realtime tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serological data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. © 2011 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine. | ||||||
| dc.description.grant | Control of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza | ||||||
| dc.description.grantcode | 97655 | ||||||
| dc.description.nature | link_to_OA_fulltext | ||||||
| dc.identifier.citation | Experimental Biology And Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961 [How to Cite?] DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.citeulike | 11462180 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2010.010271 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.epage | 961 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.hkuros | 194893 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000293877200008
Funding Information: This work was supported by the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant no. 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (grant no. AoE/M-12/06). | ||||||
| dc.identifier.issn | 1535-3702 2011 Impact Factor: 2.526 2011 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.178 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.issue | 8 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.openurl | | ||||||
| dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC3178755 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.pmid | 21727183 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-79961185982 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.spage | 955 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/139871 | ||||||
| dc.identifier.volume | 236 | ||||||
| dc.language | eng | ||||||
| dc.publisher | Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ebmonline.org/ | ||||||
| dc.publisher.place | United States | ||||||
| dc.relation.ispartof | Experimental Biology and Medicine | ||||||
| dc.relation.references | References in Scopus | ||||||
| dc.rights | Experimental Biology and Medicine, 2011, v. 236 n. 8, p. 955-961. DOI: 10.1258/ebm.2010.010271. This is the final draft, after peer-review, of a manuscript published in Experimental Biology and Medicine. The definitive version, detailed above, is available online at www.rsmjournals.com. | ||||||
| dc.rights | Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License | ||||||
| dc.subject.mesh | Disaster Planning | ||||||
| dc.subject.mesh | Disease Outbreaks | ||||||
| dc.subject.mesh | Influenza Vaccines - therapeutic use | ||||||
| dc.subject.mesh | Influenza, Human - epidemiology - prevention and control - virology | ||||||
| dc.subject.mesh | Pandemics | ||||||
| dc.subject | Epidemiological control | ||||||
| dc.subject | Influenza | ||||||
| dc.subject | Mathematical models | ||||||
| dc.title | The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response | ||||||
| dc.type | Article |
Author Affiliations
- The University of Hong Kong Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine