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Article: Distribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities

TitleDistribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities
Authors
KeywordsBounds
Independence
Moments
Probability inequality
Travel time reliability
Issue Date2011
PublisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/trb
Citation
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2011, v. 45 n. 6, p. 852-866 How to Cite?
AbstractAn assumption that pervades the current transportation system reliability assessment literature is that probability distributions of the sources of uncertainty are known explicitly. However, this distribution may be unavailable (inaccurate) in reality as we may have no (insufficient) data to calibrate the distribution. In this paper we relax this assumption and present a new method to assess travel time reliability that is distribution-free in the sense that the methodology only requires that the first N moments (where N is a user-specified positive integer) of the travel time to be known and that the travel times reside in a set of bounded and known intervals. Because of our modeling approach, all sources of uncertainty are automatically accounted for, as long as they are statistically independent. Instead of deriving exact probabilities on travel times exceeding certain thresholds via computationally intensive methods, we develop semi-analytical probability inequalities to quickly (i.e. within a fraction of a second) obtain upper bounds on the desired probability. Numerical experiments suggest that the inclusion of higher order moments can potentially significantly improve the bounds. The case study also demonstrates that the derived bounds are nontrivial for a large range of travel time values. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/135054
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.769
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.905
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNg, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorSzeto, WYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWaller, ST-
dc.date.accessioned2011-07-27T01:27:21Z-
dc.date.available2011-07-27T01:27:21Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_HK
dc.identifier.citationTransportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2011, v. 45 n. 6, p. 852-866en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0191-2615en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/135054-
dc.description.abstractAn assumption that pervades the current transportation system reliability assessment literature is that probability distributions of the sources of uncertainty are known explicitly. However, this distribution may be unavailable (inaccurate) in reality as we may have no (insufficient) data to calibrate the distribution. In this paper we relax this assumption and present a new method to assess travel time reliability that is distribution-free in the sense that the methodology only requires that the first N moments (where N is a user-specified positive integer) of the travel time to be known and that the travel times reside in a set of bounded and known intervals. Because of our modeling approach, all sources of uncertainty are automatically accounted for, as long as they are statistically independent. Instead of deriving exact probabilities on travel times exceeding certain thresholds via computationally intensive methods, we develop semi-analytical probability inequalities to quickly (i.e. within a fraction of a second) obtain upper bounds on the desired probability. Numerical experiments suggest that the inclusion of higher order moments can potentially significantly improve the bounds. The case study also demonstrates that the derived bounds are nontrivial for a large range of travel time values. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/trben_HK
dc.relation.ispartofTransportation Research Part B: Methodologicalen_HK
dc.rightsNOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2011, v. 45 n. 6, p. 852-866. DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2011.03.003-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subjectBoundsen_HK
dc.subjectIndependenceen_HK
dc.subjectMomentsen_HK
dc.subjectProbability inequalityen_HK
dc.subjectTravel time reliabilityen_HK
dc.titleDistribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalitiesen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNg, M: mng@odu.eduen_HK
dc.identifier.emailSzeto, WY: ceszeto@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authoritySzeto, WY=rp01377en_HK
dc.description.naturepostprint-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.trb.2011.03.003en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-79956367018en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros187878en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-79956367018&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume45en_HK
dc.identifier.issue6en_HK
dc.identifier.spage852en_HK
dc.identifier.epage866en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1879-2367-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000291902500002-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTravis Waller, S=14720245800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSzeto, WY=7003652508en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNg, M=33467863100en_HK

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