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Article: Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong

TitleLong-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong
Authors
KeywordsArticle
Demography
Economic Aspect
Elderly Care
Government
Health Care Cost
Health Care Personnel
Health Service
Hong Kong
Long Term Care
Issue Date2009
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmchealthservres/
Citation
BMC Health Services Research, 2009, v. 9, article no. 172 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground. Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC) expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036. Methods. We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions. Results. Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure. Conclusion. The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning. © 2009 Chung et al.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/92607
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.606
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.128
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Hong Kong Research Grants Council7010-PPR-3
University of Hong Kong
Funding Information:

The opinions expressed here are the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect those of the data suppliers or the authors' home institutions.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChung, RYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorTin, KYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChan, KPen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChan, WMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLo, SVen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-17T10:51:32Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-17T10:51:32Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationBMC Health Services Research, 2009, v. 9, article no. 172en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1472-6963en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/92607-
dc.description.abstractBackground. Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC) expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036. Methods. We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions. Results. Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure. Conclusion. The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning. © 2009 Chung et al.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmchealthservres/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofBMC Health Services Researchen_HK
dc.subjectArticleen_HK
dc.subjectDemographyen_HK
dc.subjectEconomic Aspecten_HK
dc.subjectElderly Careen_HK
dc.subjectGovernmenten_HK
dc.subjectHealth Care Costen_HK
dc.subjectHealth Care Personnelen_HK
dc.subjectHealth Serviceen_HK
dc.subjectHong Kongen_HK
dc.subjectLong Term Careen_HK
dc.titleLong-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kongen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailTin, KY:tinyiuke@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ:bcowling@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM:gmleung@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityTin, KY=rp00494en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1472-6963-9-172en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid19775476-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2765433-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-70350399886en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros168028en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-70350399886&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volumev. 9, article no. 172en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000271205100001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChung, RY=23988568600en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTin, KY=7003796897en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCowling, BJ=8644765500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, KP=54921825100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, WM=7403914485en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLo, SV=8426498400en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike5868795-

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