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Article: Alternative methods of estimating an incubation distribution: Examples from severe acute respiratory syndrome

TitleAlternative methods of estimating an incubation distribution: Examples from severe acute respiratory syndrome
Authors
Issue Date2007
PublisherLippincott Williams & Wilkins. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epidem.com
Citation
Epidemiology, 2007, v. 18 n. 2, p. 253-259 How to Cite?
AbstractBACKGROUND: Accurate and precise estimates of the incubation distribution of novel, emerging infectious diseases are vital to inform public health policy and to parameterize mathematical models. METHODS: We discuss and compare different methods of estimating the incubation distribution allowing for interval censoring of exposures, using data from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003 as an example. RESULTS: Combining data on unselected samples of 149 and 168 patients with defined exposure intervals from Toronto and Hong Kong, respectively, we estimated the mean and variance of the incubation period to be 5.1 day and 18.3 days and the 95th percentile to be 12.9 days. We conducted multiple linear regression on the log incubation times and found that incubation was significantly longer in Toronto than in Hong Kong and in older compared with younger patients, while it was significantly shorter in healthcare workers than in other patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest subtle but important heterogeneities in the incubation period of SARS among different strata of patients. Robust estimation of the incubation period should be independently carried out in different settings and subgroups for novel human pathogens using valid statistical methods. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/92596
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 6.075
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.981
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorMuller, MPen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWong, IOLen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHo, LMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLouie, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorMcGeer, Aen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-17T10:51:12Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-17T10:51:12Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationEpidemiology, 2007, v. 18 n. 2, p. 253-259en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1044-3983en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/92596-
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Accurate and precise estimates of the incubation distribution of novel, emerging infectious diseases are vital to inform public health policy and to parameterize mathematical models. METHODS: We discuss and compare different methods of estimating the incubation distribution allowing for interval censoring of exposures, using data from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003 as an example. RESULTS: Combining data on unselected samples of 149 and 168 patients with defined exposure intervals from Toronto and Hong Kong, respectively, we estimated the mean and variance of the incubation period to be 5.1 day and 18.3 days and the 95th percentile to be 12.9 days. We conducted multiple linear regression on the log incubation times and found that incubation was significantly longer in Toronto than in Hong Kong and in older compared with younger patients, while it was significantly shorter in healthcare workers than in other patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest subtle but important heterogeneities in the incubation period of SARS among different strata of patients. Robust estimation of the incubation period should be independently carried out in different settings and subgroups for novel human pathogens using valid statistical methods. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherLippincott Williams & Wilkins. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epidem.comen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemiologyen_HK
dc.rightsEpidemiology. Copyright © Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.-
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Disease Control - methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshContact Tracing - methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaksen_HK
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Biologicalen_HK
dc.subject.meshOntario - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshQuarantineen_HK
dc.subject.meshRegression Analysisen_HK
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - epidemiology - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshTime Factorsen_HK
dc.titleAlternative methods of estimating an incubation distribution: Examples from severe acute respiratory syndromeen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailWong, IOL: iolwong@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailHo, LM: lmho@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityWong, IOL=rp01806en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityHo, LM=rp00360en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1097/01.ede.0000254660.07942.fben_HK
dc.identifier.pmid17235210-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33847041845en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros126223-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33847041845&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume18en_HK
dc.identifier.issue2en_HK
dc.identifier.spage253en_HK
dc.identifier.epage259en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000244422000013-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCowling, BJ=8644765500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMuller, MP=7404688353en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, IOL=7102513940en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHo, LM=7402955625en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLouie, M=7006128942en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMcGeer, A=7006664445en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK

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