File Download
 
Links for fulltext
(May Require Subscription)
 
Supplementary

Article: The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in a recently developed Chinese city.
  • Basic View
  • Metadata View
  • XML View
TitleThe transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in a recently developed Chinese city.
 
AuthorsWu, P1
Lau, EH1
Cowling, BJ1
Leung, CC2
Tam, CM2
Leung, GM1
 
Issue Date2010
 
PublisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
 
CitationPlos One, 2010, v. 5 n. 5, p. e10468 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010468
 
AbstractBACKGROUND: Hong Kong is an affluent subtropical city with a well-developed healthcare infrastructure but an intermediate TB burden. Declines in notification rates through the 1960s and 1970s have slowed since the 1980s to the current level of around 82 cases per 100 000 population. We studied the transmission dynamics of TB in Hong Kong to explore the factors underlying recent trends in incidence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We fitted an age-structured compartmental model to TB notifications in Hong Kong between 1968 and 2008. We used the model to quantify the proportion of annual cases due to recent transmission versus endogenous reactivation of latent infection, and to project trends in incidence rates to 2018. The proportion of annual TB notifications attributed to endogenous reactivation increased from 46% to 70% between 1968 and 2008. Age-standardized notification rates were projected to decline to approximately 56 per 100 000 in 2018. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Continued intermediate incidence of TB in Hong Kong is driven primarily by endogenous reactivation of latent infections. Public health interventions which focus on reducing transmission may not lead to substantial reductions in disease burden associated with endogenous reactivation of latent infections in the short- to medium-term. While reductions in transmission with socio-economic development and public health interventions will lead to declines in TB incidence in these regions, a high prevalence of latent infections may hinder substantial declines in burden in the longer term. These findings may therefore have important implications for the burden of TB in developing regions with higher levels of transmission currently.
 
ISSN1932-6203
2013 Impact Factor: 3.534
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.724
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010468
 
PubMed Central IDPMC2862741
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000277240300029
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SAR09080802
US National Institute of General Medical Sciences1 U54 GM088558
Funding Information:

This work was supported by the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SAR (ref: 09080802) and the US National Institute of General Medical Sciences (grant no. 1 U54 GM088558, MIDAS Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
GrantsThe transmission of tuberculosis in Hong Kong: role of demographic factors and relative contribution of primary infection, exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorWu, P
 
dc.contributor.authorLau, EH
 
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ
 
dc.contributor.authorLeung, CC
 
dc.contributor.authorTam, CM
 
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GM
 
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-17T10:49:34Z
 
dc.date.available2010-09-17T10:49:34Z
 
dc.date.issued2010
 
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Hong Kong is an affluent subtropical city with a well-developed healthcare infrastructure but an intermediate TB burden. Declines in notification rates through the 1960s and 1970s have slowed since the 1980s to the current level of around 82 cases per 100 000 population. We studied the transmission dynamics of TB in Hong Kong to explore the factors underlying recent trends in incidence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We fitted an age-structured compartmental model to TB notifications in Hong Kong between 1968 and 2008. We used the model to quantify the proportion of annual cases due to recent transmission versus endogenous reactivation of latent infection, and to project trends in incidence rates to 2018. The proportion of annual TB notifications attributed to endogenous reactivation increased from 46% to 70% between 1968 and 2008. Age-standardized notification rates were projected to decline to approximately 56 per 100 000 in 2018. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Continued intermediate incidence of TB in Hong Kong is driven primarily by endogenous reactivation of latent infections. Public health interventions which focus on reducing transmission may not lead to substantial reductions in disease burden associated with endogenous reactivation of latent infections in the short- to medium-term. While reductions in transmission with socio-economic development and public health interventions will lead to declines in TB incidence in these regions, a high prevalence of latent infections may hinder substantial declines in burden in the longer term. These findings may therefore have important implications for the burden of TB in developing regions with higher levels of transmission currently.
 
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version
 
dc.identifier.citationPlos One, 2010, v. 5 n. 5, p. e10468 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010468
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010468
 
dc.identifier.epagee10468
 
dc.identifier.hkuros170719
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000277240300029
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SAR09080802
US National Institute of General Medical Sciences1 U54 GM088558
Funding Information:

This work was supported by the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SAR (ref: 09080802) and the US National Institute of General Medical Sciences (grant no. 1 U54 GM088558, MIDAS Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

 
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
2013 Impact Factor: 3.534
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.724
 
dc.identifier.issue5
 
dc.identifier.openurl
 
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2862741
 
dc.identifier.pmid20454620
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-77956418287
 
dc.identifier.spagee10468
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/92543
 
dc.identifier.volume5
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
 
dc.publisher.placeUnited States
 
dc.relation.ispartofPloS one
 
dc.relation.projectThe transmission of tuberculosis in Hong Kong: role of demographic factors and relative contribution of primary infection, exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License
 
dc.subject.meshAge Distribution
 
dc.subject.meshCities - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshIncidence
 
dc.subject.meshTuberculosis - epidemiology - transmission
 
dc.titleThe transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in a recently developed Chinese city.
 
dc.typeArticle
 
<?xml encoding="utf-8" version="1.0"?>
<item><contributor.author>Wu, P</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Lau, EH</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Cowling, BJ</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Leung, CC</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Tam, CM</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Leung, GM</contributor.author>
<date.accessioned>2010-09-17T10:49:34Z</date.accessioned>
<date.available>2010-09-17T10:49:34Z</date.available>
<date.issued>2010</date.issued>
<identifier.citation>Plos One, 2010, v. 5 n. 5, p. e10468</identifier.citation>
<identifier.issn>1932-6203</identifier.issn>
<identifier.uri>http://hdl.handle.net/10722/92543</identifier.uri>
<description.abstract>BACKGROUND: Hong Kong is an affluent subtropical city with a well-developed healthcare infrastructure but an intermediate TB burden. Declines in notification rates through the 1960s and 1970s have slowed since the 1980s to the current level of around 82 cases per 100 000 population. We studied the transmission dynamics of TB in Hong Kong to explore the factors underlying recent trends in incidence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We fitted an age-structured compartmental model to TB notifications in Hong Kong between 1968 and 2008. We used the model to quantify the proportion of annual cases due to recent transmission versus endogenous reactivation of latent infection, and to project trends in incidence rates to 2018. The proportion of annual TB notifications attributed to endogenous reactivation increased from 46% to 70% between 1968 and 2008. Age-standardized notification rates were projected to decline to approximately 56 per 100 000 in 2018. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Continued intermediate incidence of TB in Hong Kong is driven primarily by endogenous reactivation of latent infections. Public health interventions which focus on reducing transmission may not lead to substantial reductions in disease burden associated with endogenous reactivation of latent infections in the short- to medium-term. While reductions in transmission with socio-economic development and public health interventions will lead to declines in TB incidence in these regions, a high prevalence of latent infections may hinder substantial declines in burden in the longer term. These findings may therefore have important implications for the burden of TB in developing regions with higher levels of transmission currently.</description.abstract>
<language>eng</language>
<publisher>Public Library of Science. The Journal&apos;s web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action</publisher>
<relation.ispartof>PloS one</relation.ispartof>
<rights>Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License</rights>
<subject.mesh>Age Distribution</subject.mesh>
<subject.mesh>Cities - epidemiology</subject.mesh>
<subject.mesh>Hong Kong - epidemiology</subject.mesh>
<subject.mesh>Incidence</subject.mesh>
<subject.mesh>Tuberculosis - epidemiology - transmission</subject.mesh>
<title>The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in a recently developed Chinese city.</title>
<type>Article</type>
<identifier.openurl>http://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&amp;issn=1932-6203&amp;volume=5&amp;issue=5, article no. e10468&amp;spage=&amp;epage=&amp;date=2010&amp;atitle=The+transmission+dynamics+of+tuberculosis+in+a+recently+developed+Chinese+city</identifier.openurl>
<description.nature>published_or_final_version</description.nature>
<identifier.doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0010468</identifier.doi>
<identifier.pmid>20454620</identifier.pmid>
<identifier.pmcid>PMC2862741</identifier.pmcid>
<identifier.scopus>eid_2-s2.0-77956418287</identifier.scopus>
<identifier.hkuros>170719</identifier.hkuros>
<relation.references>http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-77956418287&amp;selection=ref&amp;src=s&amp;origin=recordpage</relation.references>
<identifier.volume>5</identifier.volume>
<identifier.issue>5</identifier.issue>
<identifier.spage>e10468</identifier.spage>
<identifier.epage>e10468</identifier.epage>
<identifier.isi>WOS:000277240300029</identifier.isi>
<publisher.place>United States</publisher.place>
<relation.project>The transmission of tuberculosis in Hong Kong: role of demographic factors and relative contribution of primary infection, exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation</relation.project>
<bitstream.url>http://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/92543/1/pone.0010468.pdf</bitstream.url>
</item>
Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine
  2. Tuberculosis and Chest Service