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Article: A model to control the epidemic of H5N1 influenza at the source

TitleA model to control the epidemic of H5N1 influenza at the source
Authors
Issue Date2007
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcinfectdis/
Citation
BMC Infectious Diseases, 2007, v. 7, article no. 132 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: No country is fully prepared for a 1918-like pandemic influenza. Averting a pandemic of H5N1 influenza virus depends on the successful control of its endemicity, outbreaks in poultry and occasional spillage into human which carries a case-fatality rate of over 50%. The use of perimetric depopulation and vaccination has failed to halt the spread of the epidemic. Blanket vaccination for all poultry over a large geographical area is difficult. A combination of moratorium, segregation of water fowls from chickens and vaccination have been proved to be effective in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) since 2002 despite endemicity and outbreaks in neighbouring regions. Systematic surveillance in southern China showed that ducks and geese are the primary reservoirs which transmit the virus to chickens, minor poultry and even migratory birds. Presentation of the hypothesis: We hypothesize that this combination of moratorium, poultry segregation and targeted vaccination if successfully adapted to an affected district or province in any geographical region with high endemicity would set an example for the control in other regions. Testing the hypothesis: A planned one-off moratorium of 3 weeks at the hottest month of the year should decrease the environmental burden as a source of re-infection. Backyard farms will then be re-populated by hatchlings from virus-free chickens and minor poultry only. Targeted immunization of the ducks and geese present only in the industrial farms and also the chickens would be strictly implemented as blanket immunization of all backyard poultry is almost impossible. Freely grazing ducks and geese would not be allowed until neutralizing antibodies of H5 subtype virus is achieved. As a proof of concept, a simple mathematical model with susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) structure of coupled epidemics between aquatic birds (mainly ducks and geese) and chickens was used to estimate transmissibility within and between these two poultry populations. In the field the hypothesis is tested by prospective surveillance of poultry and immunocompetent patients hospitalized for severe pneumonia for the virus before and after the institution of these measures. Implications of the Hypothesis: A combination of targeted immunization with the correct vaccine, segregation of poultry species and moratorium of poultry in addition to the present surveillance, biosecurity and hygienic measures at the farm, market and personal levels could be important in the successful control of the H5N1 virus in poultry and human for an extensive geographical region with continuing outbreaks. Alternatively a lesser scale of intervention at the district level can be considered if there is virus detection without evidence of excess poultry deaths since asymptomatic shedding is common in waterfowls. © 2007 Guan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86983
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.69
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.510
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorGuan, Yen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChen, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLi, KSen_HK
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWebster, Ren_HK
dc.contributor.authorPeiris, JSMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYuen, KYen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:23:43Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:23:43Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationBMC Infectious Diseases, 2007, v. 7, article no. 132en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1471-2334en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86983-
dc.description.abstractBackground: No country is fully prepared for a 1918-like pandemic influenza. Averting a pandemic of H5N1 influenza virus depends on the successful control of its endemicity, outbreaks in poultry and occasional spillage into human which carries a case-fatality rate of over 50%. The use of perimetric depopulation and vaccination has failed to halt the spread of the epidemic. Blanket vaccination for all poultry over a large geographical area is difficult. A combination of moratorium, segregation of water fowls from chickens and vaccination have been proved to be effective in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) since 2002 despite endemicity and outbreaks in neighbouring regions. Systematic surveillance in southern China showed that ducks and geese are the primary reservoirs which transmit the virus to chickens, minor poultry and even migratory birds. Presentation of the hypothesis: We hypothesize that this combination of moratorium, poultry segregation and targeted vaccination if successfully adapted to an affected district or province in any geographical region with high endemicity would set an example for the control in other regions. Testing the hypothesis: A planned one-off moratorium of 3 weeks at the hottest month of the year should decrease the environmental burden as a source of re-infection. Backyard farms will then be re-populated by hatchlings from virus-free chickens and minor poultry only. Targeted immunization of the ducks and geese present only in the industrial farms and also the chickens would be strictly implemented as blanket immunization of all backyard poultry is almost impossible. Freely grazing ducks and geese would not be allowed until neutralizing antibodies of H5 subtype virus is achieved. As a proof of concept, a simple mathematical model with susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) structure of coupled epidemics between aquatic birds (mainly ducks and geese) and chickens was used to estimate transmissibility within and between these two poultry populations. In the field the hypothesis is tested by prospective surveillance of poultry and immunocompetent patients hospitalized for severe pneumonia for the virus before and after the institution of these measures. Implications of the Hypothesis: A combination of targeted immunization with the correct vaccine, segregation of poultry species and moratorium of poultry in addition to the present surveillance, biosecurity and hygienic measures at the farm, market and personal levels could be important in the successful control of the H5N1 virus in poultry and human for an extensive geographical region with continuing outbreaks. Alternatively a lesser scale of intervention at the district level can be considered if there is virus detection without evidence of excess poultry deaths since asymptomatic shedding is common in waterfowls. © 2007 Guan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcinfectdis/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofBMC Infectious Diseasesen_HK
dc.rightsBMC Infectious Diseases. Copyright © BioMed Central Ltd.en_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subject.meshAnimalsen_HK
dc.subject.meshChickens - immunologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshChina - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshDiagnosis, Differentialen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - prevention & controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Reservoirs - veterinary - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshDucks - immunologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshGeese - immunologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshGuidelines as Topicen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype - immunology - isolation & purificationen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza Vaccines - administration & dosageen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza in Birds - immunology - prevention & controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - diagnosis - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshPneumonia - diagnosis - veterinary - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshPoultry Diseases - prevention & controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshQuarantine - veterinaryen_HK
dc.subject.meshSeasonsen_HK
dc.subject.meshVaccination - veterinaryen_HK
dc.titleA model to control the epidemic of H5N1 influenza at the sourceen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=1471-2334&volume=13;7&spage=132&epage=&date=2007&atitle=A+model+to+control+the+epidemic+of+H5N1+influenza+at+the+source.en_HK
dc.identifier.emailGuan, Y: yguan@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailChen, H: hlchen@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S: steven.riley@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailPeiris, JSM: malik@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailYuen, KY: kyyuen@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityGuan, Y=rp00397en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityChen, H=rp00383en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityPeiris, JSM=rp00410en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYuen, KY=rp00366en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1471-2334-7-132en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid17999754-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2206044-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-38349181817en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros152778en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-38349181817&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume7en_HK
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 132-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 132-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000252741700001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridGuan, Y=7202924055en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChen, H=26643315400en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLi, KS=36072420200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWebster, R=36048363100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridPeiris, JSM=7005486823en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYuen, KY=36078079100en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike1911090-

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