File Download
  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA

TitleEstimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA
Authors
Issue Date2009
PublisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1750-2640&site=1
Citation
Influenza And Other Respiratory Viruses, 2009, v. 3 n. 6, p. 267-276 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: The United States was the second country to have a major outbreak of novel influenza A/H1N1 in what has become a new pandemic. Appropriate public health responses to this pandemic depend in part on early estimates of key epidemiological parameters of the virus in defined populations. Methods: We use a likelihood-based method to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) and serial interval using individual level U.S. data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We adjust for missing dates of illness and changes in case ascertainment. Using prior estimates for the serial interval we also estimate the reproductive number only. Results: Using the raw CDC data, we estimate the reproductive number to be between 2·2 and 2·3 and the mean of the serial interval (μ) between 2·5 and 2·6 days. After adjustment for increased case ascertainment our estimates change to 1·7 to 1·8 for R0 and 2·2 to 2·3 days for μ. In a sensitivity analysis making use of previous estimates of the mean of the serial interval, both for this epidemic (μ = 1·91 days) and for seasonal influenza (μ = 3·6 days), we estimate the reproductive number at 1·5 to 3·1. Conclusions: With adjustments for data imperfections we obtain useful estimates of key epidemiological parameters for the current influenza H1N1 outbreak in the United States. Estimates that adjust for suspected increases in reporting suggest that substantial reductions in the spread of this epidemic may be achievable with aggressive control measures, while sensitivity analyses suggest the possibility that even such measures would have limited effect in reducing total attack rates. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86816
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.378
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.570
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
National Institutes of HealthR01 EB0061695
Models of Infectious Disease Agents Study5U01GM076497
1U54GM088588
Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics
Funding Information:

This work was funded in part by the National Institutes of Health, R01 EB0061695 and Models of Infectious Disease Agents Study program through cooperative agreements 5U01GM076497 and and 1U54GM088588 to ML, the latter for the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWhite, LFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWallinga, Jen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFinelli, Len_HK
dc.contributor.authorReed, Cen_HK
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLipsitch, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorPagano, Men_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:21:40Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:21:40Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationInfluenza And Other Respiratory Viruses, 2009, v. 3 n. 6, p. 267-276en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1750-2640en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86816-
dc.description.abstractBackground: The United States was the second country to have a major outbreak of novel influenza A/H1N1 in what has become a new pandemic. Appropriate public health responses to this pandemic depend in part on early estimates of key epidemiological parameters of the virus in defined populations. Methods: We use a likelihood-based method to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) and serial interval using individual level U.S. data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We adjust for missing dates of illness and changes in case ascertainment. Using prior estimates for the serial interval we also estimate the reproductive number only. Results: Using the raw CDC data, we estimate the reproductive number to be between 2·2 and 2·3 and the mean of the serial interval (μ) between 2·5 and 2·6 days. After adjustment for increased case ascertainment our estimates change to 1·7 to 1·8 for R0 and 2·2 to 2·3 days for μ. In a sensitivity analysis making use of previous estimates of the mean of the serial interval, both for this epidemic (μ = 1·91 days) and for seasonal influenza (μ = 3·6 days), we estimate the reproductive number at 1·5 to 3·1. Conclusions: With adjustments for data imperfections we obtain useful estimates of key epidemiological parameters for the current influenza H1N1 outbreak in the United States. Estimates that adjust for suspected increases in reporting suggest that substantial reductions in the spread of this epidemic may be achievable with aggressive control measures, while sensitivity analyses suggest the possibility that even such measures would have limited effect in reducing total attack rates. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1750-2640&site=1en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofInfluenza and other Respiratory Virusesen_HK
dc.rightsInfluenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. Copyright © Blackwell Publishing Ltd.en_HK
dc.subject.meshBasic Reproduction Number - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaksen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - isolation & purificationen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshUnited States - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.titleEstimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USAen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=1750-2640&volume=3&issue=6&spage=267&epage=276&date=2009&atitle=Estimation+of+the+reproductive+number+and+the+serial+interval+in+early+phase+of+the+2009+influenza+A/H1N1+pandemic+in+the+USAen_HK
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S:sriley@hkucc.hku.hk, steven.riley@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_OA_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00106.xen_HK
dc.identifier.pmid19903209-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2782458-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-70449441301en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros168208en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-70449441301&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume3en_HK
dc.identifier.issue6en_HK
dc.identifier.spage267en_HK
dc.identifier.epage276en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000271049600005-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWhite, LF=35263262200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWallinga, J=7003807945en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFinelli, L=7007050800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridReed, C=35222238200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLipsitch, M=7006236353en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridPagano, M=7201963140en_HK

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats