File Download

There are no files associated with this item.

  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Age-period-cohort projections of breast cancer incidence in a rapidly transitioning Chinese population

TitleAge-period-cohort projections of breast cancer incidence in a rapidly transitioning Chinese population
Authors
KeywordsBreast cancer
Chinese
Determinants
Incidence
Projection
Issue Date2007
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.. The Journal's web site is located at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/29331/home
Citation
International Journal Of Cancer, 2007, v. 121 n. 7, p. 1556-1563 How to Cite?
AbstractBreast cancer incidence should be assessed separately in different populations, as it differs substantially between Chinese and Caucasian women, and more generally in developing versus developed populations. Estimation of future trends is important for public health planning. On the basis of the recent breast cancer incidence trends, we projected future disease rates in the rapidly transitioning Chinese population of Hong Kong. We used local data on breast cancer incidence and mid-year population figures for the years 1974-2003. We fitted Poisson age-period-cohort models with autoregressive priors on the age, period and cohort effects, and used projections of these effects to forecast future incidence to 2018. We found that age-standardized breast cancer incidence would continue to rise by ∼1.1% per annum over the next 15 years, from 45.9 cases in 1999-2003 to 54.3 per 100,000 (95% credible interval: 50.9, 58.4) in 2014-2018. Recent secular incidence increases can be attributed to both ageing and intergenerational effects beginning with the postwar baby boomers, whereas there is no evidence for important changes by time period. There does not appear to be differential cohort-related risk for pre- vs. postmenopausal disease. Unlike most other cancers, breast cancer risk in local women would continue to increase in the short to medium term, at a similar rate of increase compared with historical trends. This could most likely be attributed to Hong Kong's socioeconomic developmental history and continuing adoption of westernized lifestyle changes. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86537
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 5.531
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.657
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWong, IOLen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSchooling, CMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:18:16Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:18:16Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal Of Cancer, 2007, v. 121 n. 7, p. 1556-1563en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0020-7136en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86537-
dc.description.abstractBreast cancer incidence should be assessed separately in different populations, as it differs substantially between Chinese and Caucasian women, and more generally in developing versus developed populations. Estimation of future trends is important for public health planning. On the basis of the recent breast cancer incidence trends, we projected future disease rates in the rapidly transitioning Chinese population of Hong Kong. We used local data on breast cancer incidence and mid-year population figures for the years 1974-2003. We fitted Poisson age-period-cohort models with autoregressive priors on the age, period and cohort effects, and used projections of these effects to forecast future incidence to 2018. We found that age-standardized breast cancer incidence would continue to rise by ∼1.1% per annum over the next 15 years, from 45.9 cases in 1999-2003 to 54.3 per 100,000 (95% credible interval: 50.9, 58.4) in 2014-2018. Recent secular incidence increases can be attributed to both ageing and intergenerational effects beginning with the postwar baby boomers, whereas there is no evidence for important changes by time period. There does not appear to be differential cohort-related risk for pre- vs. postmenopausal disease. Unlike most other cancers, breast cancer risk in local women would continue to increase in the short to medium term, at a similar rate of increase compared with historical trends. This could most likely be attributed to Hong Kong's socioeconomic developmental history and continuing adoption of westernized lifestyle changes. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.. The Journal's web site is located at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/29331/homeen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Canceren_HK
dc.rightsInternational Journal of Cancer. Copyright © John Wiley & Sons, Inc.en_HK
dc.subjectBreast canceren_HK
dc.subjectChineseen_HK
dc.subjectDeterminantsen_HK
dc.subjectIncidenceen_HK
dc.subjectProjectionen_HK
dc.subject.meshAdulten_HK
dc.subject.meshAge Factorsen_HK
dc.subject.meshAgeden_HK
dc.subject.meshAged, 80 and overen_HK
dc.subject.meshAsian Continental Ancestry Group - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.subject.meshBreast Neoplasms - ethnologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshCohort Studiesen_HK
dc.subject.meshFemaleen_HK
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshIncidenceen_HK
dc.subject.meshMarkov Chainsen_HK
dc.subject.meshMiddle Ageden_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoreticalen_HK
dc.subject.meshMonte Carlo Methoden_HK
dc.subject.meshRegistries - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.titleAge-period-cohort projections of breast cancer incidence in a rapidly transitioning Chinese populationen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0020-7136&volume=121&spage=1556&epage=1563&date=2007&atitle=Age-period-cohort+projections+of+breast+cancer+incidence+in+a+rapidly+transitioning+Chinese+populationen_HK
dc.identifier.emailWong, IOL: iolwong@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailSchooling, CM: cms1@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityWong, IOL=rp01806en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_HK
dc.identifier.authoritySchooling, CM=rp00504en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ijc.22731en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid17437268-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-34548251450en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros134108en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-34548251450&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume121en_HK
dc.identifier.issue7en_HK
dc.identifier.spage1556en_HK
dc.identifier.epage1563en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000249109600020-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, IOL=7102513940en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCowling, BJ=8644765500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSchooling, CM=12808565000en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats