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Article: Synchrony of clinical and laboratory surveillance for influenza in Hong Kong
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TitleSynchrony of clinical and laboratory surveillance for influenza in Hong Kong
 
AuthorsYang, L1
Wong, CM1
Lau, EHY1
Chan, KP1
Ou, CQ1
Peiris, JSM1
 
Issue Date2008
 
PublisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
 
CitationPlos One, 2008, v. 3 n. 1 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001399
 
AbstractBackground: Consultation rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) in an outpatient setting have been regarded as a good indicator of influenza virus activity in the community. As ILI-like symptoms may be caused by etiologies other than influenza, and influenza virus activity in the tropics and subtropics is less predictable than in temperate regions, the correlation between of ILI and influenza virus activity in tropical and subtropical regions is less well defined. Methodology and Principal Findings: In this study, we used wavelet analysis to investigate the relationship between seasonality of influenza virus activity and consultation rates of ILI reported separately by General Out-patient Clinics (GOPC) and General Practitioners (GP). During the periods 1998-2000 and 2002-2003, influenza virus activity exhibited both annual and semiannual cycles, with one peak in the winter and another in late spring or early summer. But during 2001 and 2004-2006, only annual cycles could be clearly identified. ILI consultation rates in both GOPC and GP settings share a similar non-stationary seasonal pattern. We found high coherence between ILI in GOPC and influenza virus activity for the annual cycle but this was only significant (P<0.05) during the periods 1998-1999 and 2002-2006. For the semiannual cycle high coherence (p<0.05) was also found significant during the period 1998-1999 and year 2003 when two peaks of influenza were evident. Similarly, ILI in GP setting is also associated with influenza virus activity for both the annual and semiannual cycles. On average, oscillation of ILI in GP and of ILI in GOPC preceded influenza virus isolation by approximately four and two weeks, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that consultation rates of ILI precede the oscillations of laboratory surveillance by at least two weeks and can be used as a predictor for influenza epidemics in Hong Kong. The validity of our model for other tropical regions needs to be explored. © 2008 Yang et al.
 
ISSN1932-6203
2012 Impact Factor: 3.73
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.512
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001399
 
PubMed Central IDPMC2151138
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000260468900027
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease of the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government0405021
Funding Information:

This work was supported by the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease of the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government (RFCID No. 0405021). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorYang, L
 
dc.contributor.authorWong, CM
 
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY
 
dc.contributor.authorChan, KP
 
dc.contributor.authorOu, CQ
 
dc.contributor.authorPeiris, JSM
 
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:18:04Z
 
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:18:04Z
 
dc.date.issued2008
 
dc.description.abstractBackground: Consultation rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) in an outpatient setting have been regarded as a good indicator of influenza virus activity in the community. As ILI-like symptoms may be caused by etiologies other than influenza, and influenza virus activity in the tropics and subtropics is less predictable than in temperate regions, the correlation between of ILI and influenza virus activity in tropical and subtropical regions is less well defined. Methodology and Principal Findings: In this study, we used wavelet analysis to investigate the relationship between seasonality of influenza virus activity and consultation rates of ILI reported separately by General Out-patient Clinics (GOPC) and General Practitioners (GP). During the periods 1998-2000 and 2002-2003, influenza virus activity exhibited both annual and semiannual cycles, with one peak in the winter and another in late spring or early summer. But during 2001 and 2004-2006, only annual cycles could be clearly identified. ILI consultation rates in both GOPC and GP settings share a similar non-stationary seasonal pattern. We found high coherence between ILI in GOPC and influenza virus activity for the annual cycle but this was only significant (P<0.05) during the periods 1998-1999 and 2002-2006. For the semiannual cycle high coherence (p<0.05) was also found significant during the period 1998-1999 and year 2003 when two peaks of influenza were evident. Similarly, ILI in GP setting is also associated with influenza virus activity for both the annual and semiannual cycles. On average, oscillation of ILI in GP and of ILI in GOPC preceded influenza virus isolation by approximately four and two weeks, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that consultation rates of ILI precede the oscillations of laboratory surveillance by at least two weeks and can be used as a predictor for influenza epidemics in Hong Kong. The validity of our model for other tropical regions needs to be explored. © 2008 Yang et al.
 
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version
 
dc.identifier.citationPlos One, 2008, v. 3 n. 1 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001399
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001399
 
dc.identifier.epagee1399
 
dc.identifier.hkuros138996
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000260468900027
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease of the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government0405021
Funding Information:

This work was supported by the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease of the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government (RFCID No. 0405021). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

 
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
2012 Impact Factor: 3.73
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.512
 
dc.identifier.issue1
 
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2151138
 
dc.identifier.pmid18167558
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-38949142578
 
dc.identifier.spagee1399
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86521
 
dc.identifier.volume3
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
 
dc.publisher.placeUnited States
 
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONE
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License
 
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshHumans
 
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshPopulation Surveillance
 
dc.subject.meshSeasons
 
dc.titleSynchrony of clinical and laboratory surveillance for influenza in Hong Kong
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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<contributor.author>Ou, CQ</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Peiris, JSM</contributor.author>
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Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong