Article: Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions

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TitleTransmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions
AuthorsRiley, S5
Fraser, C5
Donnelly, CA5
Ghani, AC5
AbuRaddad, LJ5
Hedley, AJ2
Leung, GM2
Ho, LM2
Lam, TH2
Thach, TQ2
Chau, P2
Chan, KP2
Lo, SV3
Leung, PY3
Tsang, T3
Ho, W1
Lee, KH1
Lau, EMC4
Ferguson, NM5
Anderson, RM5
Issue Date2003
PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org
CitationScience, 2003, v. 300 n. 5627, p. 1961-1966 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
AbstractWe present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
ISSN0036-8075
2011 Impact Factor: 31.201
2011 SCImago Journal Rankings: 5.425
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000183619400052
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
DC Field
Value
dc.contributor.authorRiley, S
dc.contributor.authorFraser, C
dc.contributor.authorDonnelly, CA
dc.contributor.authorGhani, AC
dc.contributor.authorAbuRaddad, LJ
dc.contributor.authorHedley, AJ
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GM
dc.contributor.authorHo, LM
dc.contributor.authorLam, TH
dc.contributor.authorThach, TQ
dc.contributor.authorChau, P
dc.contributor.authorChan, KP
dc.contributor.authorLo, SV
dc.contributor.authorLeung, PY
dc.contributor.authorTsang, T
dc.contributor.authorHo, W
dc.contributor.authorLee, KH
dc.contributor.authorLau, EMC
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, NM
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, RM
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:17:48Z
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:17:48Z
dc.date.issued2003
dc.description.abstractWe present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext
dc.identifier.citationScience, 2003, v. 300 n. 5627, p. 1961-1966 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
dc.identifier.citeulike4010261
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
dc.identifier.epage1966
dc.identifier.hkuros77239
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000183619400052
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075
2011 Impact Factor: 31.201
2011 SCImago Journal Rankings: 5.425
dc.identifier.issue5627
dc.identifier.openurl
dc.identifier.pmid12766206
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-12444260277
dc.identifier.spage1961
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86499
dc.identifier.volume300
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org
dc.publisher.placeUnited States
dc.relation.ispartofScience
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
dc.rightsScience. Copyright © American Association for the Advancement of Science.
dc.subject.meshCluster Analysis
dc.subject.meshContact Tracing
dc.subject.meshCross Infection - epidemiology - prevention & control - transmission
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - prevention & control - statistics & numerical data
dc.subject.meshEpidemiologic Methods
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiology
dc.subject.meshHospitalization
dc.subject.meshHumans
dc.subject.meshInfection Control
dc.subject.meshMathematics
dc.subject.meshModels, Statistical
dc.subject.meshPatient Isolation
dc.subject.meshProbability
dc.subject.meshPublic Health Practice
dc.subject.meshQuarantine
dc.subject.meshSARS Virus - physiology
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - epidemiology - prevention & control - transmission - virology
dc.subject.meshStochastic Processes
dc.subject.meshWorld Health
dc.titleTransmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions
dc.typeArticle
Author Affiliations
  1. Hong Kong Hospital Authority
  2. The University of Hong Kong
  3. Hong Kong Government
  4. Prince of Wales Hospital Hong Kong
  5. Imperial College London