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Article: Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions

TitleTransmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions
Authors
Issue Date2003
PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org
Citation
Science, 2003, v. 300 n. 5627, p. 1961-1966 How to Cite?
Abstract
We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86499
ISSN
2013 Impact Factor: 31.477
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 12.465
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFraser, Cen_HK
dc.contributor.authorDonnelly, CAen_HK
dc.contributor.authorGhani, ACen_HK
dc.contributor.authorAbuRaddad, LJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHedley, AJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHo, LMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLam, THen_HK
dc.contributor.authorThach, TQen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChau, Pen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChan, KPen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLo, SVen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, PYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorTsang, Ten_HK
dc.contributor.authorHo, Wen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLee, KHen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLau, EMCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, NMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, RMen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:17:48Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:17:48Z-
dc.date.issued2003en_HK
dc.identifier.citationScience, 2003, v. 300 n. 5627, p. 1961-1966en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86499-
dc.description.abstractWe present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.orgen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofScienceen_HK
dc.rightsScience. Copyright © American Association for the Advancement of Science.en_HK
dc.subject.meshCluster Analysisen_HK
dc.subject.meshContact Tracingen_HK
dc.subject.meshCross Infection - epidemiology - prevention & control - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - prevention & control - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.subject.meshEpidemiologic Methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshHospitalizationen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfection Controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshMathematicsen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Statisticalen_HK
dc.subject.meshPatient Isolationen_HK
dc.subject.meshProbabilityen_HK
dc.subject.meshPublic Health Practiceen_HK
dc.subject.meshQuarantineen_HK
dc.subject.meshSARS Virus - physiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - epidemiology - prevention & control - transmission - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshStochastic Processesen_HK
dc.subject.meshWorld Healthen_HK
dc.titleTransmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventionsen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0036-8075&volume=300&spage=1961&epage=1966&date=2003&atitle=Transmission+dynamics+of+the+etiological+agent+of+SARS+in+Hong+Kong:+Impact+of+public+health+interventionsen_HK
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S: steven.riley@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailHedley, AJ: hrmrajh@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailHo, LM: lmho@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLam, TH: hrmrlth@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailThach, TQ: thach@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityHedley, AJ=rp00357en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityHo, LM=rp00360en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLam, TH=rp00326en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityThach, TQ=rp00450en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/science.1086478en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid12766206en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-12444260277en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros77239en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-12444260277&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume300en_HK
dc.identifier.issue5627en_HK
dc.identifier.spage1961en_HK
dc.identifier.epage1966en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000183619400052-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFraser, C=35460815100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDonnelly, CA=35468127900en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridGhani, AC=7006814439en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridAbuRaddad, LJ=14032724700en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHedley, AJ=7102584095en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHo, LM=7402955625en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, TH=7202522876en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridThach, TQ=6602850066en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChau, P=7102266397en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, KP=27171298000en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLo, SV=8426498400en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, PY=7401749022en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTsang, T=7101832378en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHo, W=7402968706en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLee, KH=7501498017en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, EMC=7103086055en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFerguson, NM=7103246319en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridAnderson, RM=7408244444en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike4010261-

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