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Article: Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions
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TitleTransmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions
 
AuthorsRiley, S5
Fraser, C5
Donnelly, CA5
Ghani, AC5
AbuRaddad, LJ5
Hedley, AJ2
Leung, GM2
Ho, LM2
Lam, TH2
Thach, TQ2
Chau, P2
Chan, KP2
Lo, SV3
Leung, PY3
Tsang, T3
Ho, W1
Lee, KH1
Lau, EMC4
Ferguson, NM5
Anderson, RM5
 
Issue Date2003
 
PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org
 
CitationScience, 2003, v. 300 n. 5627, p. 1961-1966 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
 
AbstractWe present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
 
ISSN0036-8075
2012 Impact Factor: 31.027
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 10.618
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000183619400052
 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorRiley, S
 
dc.contributor.authorFraser, C
 
dc.contributor.authorDonnelly, CA
 
dc.contributor.authorGhani, AC
 
dc.contributor.authorAbuRaddad, LJ
 
dc.contributor.authorHedley, AJ
 
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GM
 
dc.contributor.authorHo, LM
 
dc.contributor.authorLam, TH
 
dc.contributor.authorThach, TQ
 
dc.contributor.authorChau, P
 
dc.contributor.authorChan, KP
 
dc.contributor.authorLo, SV
 
dc.contributor.authorLeung, PY
 
dc.contributor.authorTsang, T
 
dc.contributor.authorHo, W
 
dc.contributor.authorLee, KH
 
dc.contributor.authorLau, EMC
 
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, NM
 
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, RM
 
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:17:48Z
 
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:17:48Z
 
dc.date.issued2003
 
dc.description.abstractWe present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
 
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext
 
dc.identifier.citationScience, 2003, v. 300 n. 5627, p. 1961-1966 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
 
dc.identifier.citeulike4010261
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1086478
 
dc.identifier.epage1966
 
dc.identifier.hkuros77239
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000183619400052
 
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075
2012 Impact Factor: 31.027
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 10.618
 
dc.identifier.issue5627
 
dc.identifier.openurl
 
dc.identifier.pmid12766206
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-12444260277
 
dc.identifier.spage1961
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86499
 
dc.identifier.volume300
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org
 
dc.publisher.placeUnited States
 
dc.relation.ispartofScience
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.rightsScience. Copyright © American Association for the Advancement of Science.
 
dc.subject.meshCluster Analysis
 
dc.subject.meshContact Tracing
 
dc.subject.meshCross Infection - epidemiology - prevention & control - transmission
 
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - prevention & control - statistics & numerical data
 
dc.subject.meshEpidemiologic Methods
 
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshHospitalization
 
dc.subject.meshHumans
 
dc.subject.meshInfection Control
 
dc.subject.meshMathematics
 
dc.subject.meshModels, Statistical
 
dc.subject.meshPatient Isolation
 
dc.subject.meshProbability
 
dc.subject.meshPublic Health Practice
 
dc.subject.meshQuarantine
 
dc.subject.meshSARS Virus - physiology
 
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - epidemiology - prevention & control - transmission - virology
 
dc.subject.meshStochastic Processes
 
dc.subject.meshWorld Health
 
dc.titleTransmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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Author Affiliations
  1. Hong Kong Hospital Authority
  2. The University of Hong Kong
  3. Hong Kong Government
  4. Prince of Wales Hospital Hong Kong
  5. Imperial College London