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Article: Hong Kong's health spending projections through 2033

TitleHong Kong's health spending projections through 2033
Authors
Issue Date2007
PublisherElsevier Ireland Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/healthpol
Citation
Health Policy, 2007, v. 81 n. 1, p. 93-101 How to Cite?
AbstractObjective: To derive actuarial projection estimates of Hong Kong's total domestic health expenditure to the year 2033. Methods: Disaggregating health expenditure by age, sex, unit cost and utilisation level, we estimated future health spending by projecting utilisation (by public/private, inpatient/outpatient care) to reflect demographic changes and associated increase in demand (from higher expectations and greater intensity of care), and then multiplying such by the projected unit costs (incorporating the impact of key cost drivers such as public expectations, technological changes and potential productivity gains) to obtain total expenditure estimates. Results: The model was most sensitive to the excess health care price inflation rate, i.e. the annual price/cost growth of medical goods and services over and above per capita GDP growth. Population ageing and growth per se, without taking into account related technologic innovation for chronic conditions that particularly afflict older adults, contribute relatively little to overall spending growth. Given the model assumptions, it is possible to limit total health spending to below 10% of GDP by 2033, where the public share would gradually decline from the current 57% to between 46% and 49%. Conclusions: Expenditure control through global budgeting, technology assessment and demand-side constraints should be considered although their effectiveness remains inconclusive. © 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86484
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.035
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.733
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorTin, KYKen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChan, WSen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:17:37Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:17:37Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationHealth Policy, 2007, v. 81 n. 1, p. 93-101en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0168-8510en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86484-
dc.description.abstractObjective: To derive actuarial projection estimates of Hong Kong's total domestic health expenditure to the year 2033. Methods: Disaggregating health expenditure by age, sex, unit cost and utilisation level, we estimated future health spending by projecting utilisation (by public/private, inpatient/outpatient care) to reflect demographic changes and associated increase in demand (from higher expectations and greater intensity of care), and then multiplying such by the projected unit costs (incorporating the impact of key cost drivers such as public expectations, technological changes and potential productivity gains) to obtain total expenditure estimates. Results: The model was most sensitive to the excess health care price inflation rate, i.e. the annual price/cost growth of medical goods and services over and above per capita GDP growth. Population ageing and growth per se, without taking into account related technologic innovation for chronic conditions that particularly afflict older adults, contribute relatively little to overall spending growth. Given the model assumptions, it is possible to limit total health spending to below 10% of GDP by 2033, where the public share would gradually decline from the current 57% to between 46% and 49%. Conclusions: Expenditure control through global budgeting, technology assessment and demand-side constraints should be considered although their effectiveness remains inconclusive. © 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherElsevier Ireland Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/healthpolen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofHealth Policyen_HK
dc.rightsHealth policy. Copyright © Elsevier Ireland Ltd.en_HK
dc.subject.meshAdolescenten_HK
dc.subject.meshAdulten_HK
dc.subject.meshAgeden_HK
dc.subject.meshAged, 80 and overen_HK
dc.subject.meshChilden_HK
dc.subject.meshChild, Preschoolen_HK
dc.subject.meshDatabases as Topicen_HK
dc.subject.meshDelivery of Health Careen_HK
dc.subject.meshFemaleen_HK
dc.subject.meshForecastingen_HK
dc.subject.meshHealth Care Reformen_HK
dc.subject.meshHealth Expenditures - trendsen_HK
dc.subject.meshHong Kongen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfanten_HK
dc.subject.meshMaleen_HK
dc.subject.meshMiddle Ageden_HK
dc.titleHong Kong's health spending projections through 2033en_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0168-8510&volume=81&spage=93&epage=101&date=2007&atitle=Hong+Kong%27s+health+spending+projections+through+2033en_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM:gmleung@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailTin, KYK:tinyiuke@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityTin, KYK=rp00494en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.healthpol.2006.05.014en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid16806563-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33847414580en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros126222en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33847414580&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume81en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage93en_HK
dc.identifier.epage101en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000245371000008-
dc.publisher.placeIrelanden_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTin, KYK=7003796897en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, WS=7403918160en_HK

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