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Article: Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS

TitleReal-time estimates in early detection of SARS
Authors
Issue Date2006
PublisherUS Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm
Citation
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2006, v. 12 n. 1, p. 110-113 How to Cite?
AbstractWe propose a Bayesian statistical framework for estimating the reproduction number R early in an epidemic. This method allows for the yet-unrecorded secondary cases if the estimate is obtained before the epidemic has ended. We applied our approach to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic that started in February 2003 in Hong Kong. Temporal patterns of R estimated after 5, 10, and 20 days were similar. Ninety-five percent credible intervals narrowed when more data were available but stabilized after 10 days. Using simulation studies of SARS-like outbreaks, we have shown that the method may be used for early monitoring of the effect of control measures.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86441
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 6.994
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.023
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorCauchemez, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorBoëlle, PYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorDonnelly, CAen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, NMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorThomas, Gen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHedley, AJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, RMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorValleron, AJen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:17:04Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:17:04Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_HK
dc.identifier.citationEmerging Infectious Diseases, 2006, v. 12 n. 1, p. 110-113en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1080-6040en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86441-
dc.description.abstractWe propose a Bayesian statistical framework for estimating the reproduction number R early in an epidemic. This method allows for the yet-unrecorded secondary cases if the estimate is obtained before the epidemic has ended. We applied our approach to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic that started in February 2003 in Hong Kong. Temporal patterns of R estimated after 5, 10, and 20 days were similar. Ninety-five percent credible intervals narrowed when more data were available but stabilized after 10 days. Using simulation studies of SARS-like outbreaks, we have shown that the method may be used for early monitoring of the effect of control measures.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherUS Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htmen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofEmerging Infectious Diseasesen_HK
dc.subject.meshBayes Theoremen_HK
dc.subject.meshComputer Simulationen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - prevention & control - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - diagnosis - epidemiology - prevention & controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshTime Factorsen_HK
dc.titleReal-time estimates in early detection of SARSen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=1080-6040&volume=12&spage=110&epage=113&date=2006&atitle=Real-time+estimates+in+early+detection+of+SARSen_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM:gmleung@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailHedley, AJ:hrmrajh@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityHedley, AJ=rp00357en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.pmid16494726-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-31344451273en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros115476en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-31344451273&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume12en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage110en_HK
dc.identifier.epage113en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000234419700020-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCauchemez, S=11940936200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBoëlle, PY=7003593801en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDonnelly, CA=35468127900en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFerguson, NM=7103246319en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridThomas, G=7404576265en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHedley, AJ=7102584095en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridAnderson, RM=7408244444en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridValleron, AJ=7004672683en_HK

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