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Article: Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico

TitleUse of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico
Authors
Issue Date2009
PublisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
Citation
Plos One, 2009, v. 4 n. 9 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: An accurate estimate of the total number of cases and severity of illness of an emerging infectious disease is required both to define the burden of the epidemic and to determine the severity of disease. When a novel pathogen first appears, affected individuals with severe symptoms are more likely to be diagnosed. Accordingly, the total number of cases will be underestimated and disease severity overestimated. This problem is manifest in the current epidemic of novel influenza A/H1N1. Methods and Results: We used a simple approach to leverage measures of incident influenza A/H1N1 among a relatively small and well observed group of US, UK, Spanish and Canadian travelers who had visited Mexico to estimate the incidence among a much larger and less well surveyed population of Mexican residents. We estimate that a minimum of 113,000 to 375,000 cases of novel influenza A/H1N1 have occurred in Mexicans during the month of April, 2009. Such an estimate serves as a lower bound because it does not account for underreporting of cases in travelers or for nonrandom mixing between Mexican residents and visitors, which together could increase the estimates by more than an order of magnitude. Conclusions: We find that the number of cases in Mexican residents may exceed the number of confirmed cases by two to three orders of magnitude. While the extent of disease spread is greater than previously appreciated, our estimate suggests that severe disease is uncommon since the total number of cases is likely to be much larger than those of confirmed cases. © 2009 Lipsitch et al.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86426
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.057
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.395
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLipsitch, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorLajous, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorO'Hagan, JJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCohen, Ten_HK
dc.contributor.authorMiller, JCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorGoldstein, Een_HK
dc.contributor.authorDanon, Len_HK
dc.contributor.authorWallinga, Jen_HK
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorDowell, SFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorReed, Cen_HK
dc.contributor.authorMcCarron, Men_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:16:52Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:16:52Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationPlos One, 2009, v. 4 n. 9en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86426-
dc.description.abstractBackground: An accurate estimate of the total number of cases and severity of illness of an emerging infectious disease is required both to define the burden of the epidemic and to determine the severity of disease. When a novel pathogen first appears, affected individuals with severe symptoms are more likely to be diagnosed. Accordingly, the total number of cases will be underestimated and disease severity overestimated. This problem is manifest in the current epidemic of novel influenza A/H1N1. Methods and Results: We used a simple approach to leverage measures of incident influenza A/H1N1 among a relatively small and well observed group of US, UK, Spanish and Canadian travelers who had visited Mexico to estimate the incidence among a much larger and less well surveyed population of Mexican residents. We estimate that a minimum of 113,000 to 375,000 cases of novel influenza A/H1N1 have occurred in Mexicans during the month of April, 2009. Such an estimate serves as a lower bound because it does not account for underreporting of cases in travelers or for nonrandom mixing between Mexican residents and visitors, which together could increase the estimates by more than an order of magnitude. Conclusions: We find that the number of cases in Mexican residents may exceed the number of confirmed cases by two to three orders of magnitude. While the extent of disease spread is greater than previously appreciated, our estimate suggests that severe disease is uncommon since the total number of cases is likely to be much larger than those of confirmed cases. © 2009 Lipsitch et al.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.actionen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONEen_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - genetics-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - virology-
dc.subject.meshLength of Stay-
dc.subject.meshPopulation Surveillance-
dc.titleUse of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexicoen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S:sriley@hkucc.hku.hk, steven.riley@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0006895en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid19742302-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2731883-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-70349094077en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros165224en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-70349094077&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume4en_HK
dc.identifier.issue9en_HK
dc.identifier.spagee6895-
dc.identifier.epagee6895-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000269622500002-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLipsitch, M=7006236353en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLajous, M=12777297800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridO'Hagan, JJ=22234869700en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCohen, T=7202415780en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMiller, JC=34880614600en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridGoldstein, E=35344973300en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDanon, L=6603245188en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWallinga, J=7003807945en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDowell, SF=7004419871en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridReed, C=35222238200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMcCarron, M=24449703500en_HK

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