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Article: Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia

TitleCardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia
Authors
Issue Date2007
PublisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/
Citation
Journal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2007, v. 61 n. 2, p. 115-121 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. Objective: To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Design: Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Setting: Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. Participants: 172 077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25 682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. Main results: In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. Interpretation: A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian populations as tools developed from data on local cohorts.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86425
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.865
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.890
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBarzi, Fen_HK
dc.contributor.authorPatel, Aen_HK
dc.contributor.authorGu, Den_HK
dc.contributor.authorSritara, Pen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLam, THen_HK
dc.contributor.authorRodgers, Aen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWoodward, Men_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:16:51Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:16:51Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2007, v. 61 n. 2, p. 115-121en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0143-005Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86425-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. Objective: To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Design: Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Setting: Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. Participants: 172 077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25 682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. Main results: In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. Interpretation: A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian populations as tools developed from data on local cohorts.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Epidemiology and Community Healthen_HK
dc.rightsJournal of Epidemiology & Community Health. Copyright © B M J Publishing Group.en_HK
dc.subject.meshAdulten_HK
dc.subject.meshAge Factorsen_HK
dc.subject.meshAgeden_HK
dc.subject.meshAsia - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshBlood Pressureen_HK
dc.subject.meshCalibrationen_HK
dc.subject.meshCardiovascular Diseases - prevention & controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshCholesterol - blooden_HK
dc.subject.meshCohort Studiesen_HK
dc.subject.meshEurope - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshEvidence-Based Medicineen_HK
dc.subject.meshFemaleen_HK
dc.subject.meshHealth Status Indicatorsen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshMaleen_HK
dc.subject.meshMiddle Ageden_HK
dc.subject.meshProportional Hazards Modelsen_HK
dc.subject.meshPublic Healthen_HK
dc.subject.meshRisk Assessment - methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshSensitivity and Specificityen_HK
dc.subject.meshSex Factorsen_HK
dc.subject.meshSmokingen_HK
dc.titleCardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asiaen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0143-005X&volume=61&spage=115&epage=121&date=2007&atitle=Cardiovascular+risk+prediction+tools+for+populations+in+Asiaen_HK
dc.identifier.emailLam, TH:hrmrlth@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLam, TH=rp00326en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/jech.2005.044842en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid17234869-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33846571527en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros125748en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33846571527&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume61en_HK
dc.identifier.issue2en_HK
dc.identifier.spage115en_HK
dc.identifier.epage121en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000243597800008-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBarzi, F=7003545543en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridPatel, A=7403524909en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridGu, D=7202151958en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSritara, P=6602366631en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, TH=7202522876en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRodgers, A=7102805144en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWoodward, M=7102510958en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike2009942-

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