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Article: Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

TitleTemperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium
Authors
KeywordsAridity threshold
China
Climate change
Land carrying capacity
Population dynamics
Temperature
Issue Date2009
PublisherInter-Research. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.int-res.com/journals/cr/
Citation
Climate Research, 2009, v. 39 n. 2, p. 131-147 How to Cite?
AbstractThe relationship between climate and population has long been discussed, but rarely has it been quantitatively measured. Hence, the relationship remains ambiguous. In the present study, we employ fine-grained temperature, aridity threshold, and population data, together with logistic models and spatial statistics, to quantitatively explore how far climate change affected population growth dynamics in China from 1000 to 1979. Statistical results confirm that cold climate was associated with below average population growth, mediated by regional geographic contexts. In addition, cold climate triggered a southward shift of populations. In short, the climate-population relationship was evident in historical China, and temperature was more influential than the aridity threshold in explaining the fluctuation of population size and shifts in population distribution. The strong influence of temperature change on northward and southward population shifts and the weak influence of the change in the aridity threshold on population growth dynamics are further discussed. The observed temperature-population relationship may give some indication of future demographic effects from climate warming. © Inter-Research 2009.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86100
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.69
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.107
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
HKU Small Project Funding for the project entitled 'The Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Natural Disasters in Historical China'200807176038
HKU Seed Funding for Basic Research for the project entitled 'Long-Term Climate Change and the Seventeenth-Century General Crisis in Europe'
Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of ChinaHKU7055/08H
Funding Information:

Research Grants were kindly provided by the HKU Small Project Funding for the project entitled 'The Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Natural Disasters in Historical China' (200807176038), by the HKU Seed Funding for Basic Research for the project entitled 'Long-Term Climate Change and the Seventeenth-Century General Crisis in Europe', and by the Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China for the projects entitled 'Climate Change and War-Peace Cycles in Eurasia in Recent Human History' (HKU7055/08H). We also thank Prof. B. Yang for providing the data on aridity threshold reconstructions and Prof. P. Brecke for suggesting the method of data interpolation.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLee, HFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorZhang, DDen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFok, Len_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T09:12:53Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T09:12:53Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationClimate Research, 2009, v. 39 n. 2, p. 131-147en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0936-577Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/86100-
dc.description.abstractThe relationship between climate and population has long been discussed, but rarely has it been quantitatively measured. Hence, the relationship remains ambiguous. In the present study, we employ fine-grained temperature, aridity threshold, and population data, together with logistic models and spatial statistics, to quantitatively explore how far climate change affected population growth dynamics in China from 1000 to 1979. Statistical results confirm that cold climate was associated with below average population growth, mediated by regional geographic contexts. In addition, cold climate triggered a southward shift of populations. In short, the climate-population relationship was evident in historical China, and temperature was more influential than the aridity threshold in explaining the fluctuation of population size and shifts in population distribution. The strong influence of temperature change on northward and southward population shifts and the weak influence of the change in the aridity threshold on population growth dynamics are further discussed. The observed temperature-population relationship may give some indication of future demographic effects from climate warming. © Inter-Research 2009.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherInter-Research. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.int-res.com/journals/cr/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofClimate Researchen_HK
dc.subjectAridity thresholden_HK
dc.subjectChinaen_HK
dc.subjectClimate changeen_HK
dc.subjectLand carrying capacityen_HK
dc.subjectPopulation dynamicsen_HK
dc.subjectTemperatureen_HK
dc.titleTemperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millenniumen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0936-577X&volume=39&issue=2&spage=131&epage=147&date=2009&atitle=Temperature,+aridity+thresholds,+and+population+growth+dynamics+in+China+over+the+last+millenniumen_HK
dc.identifier.emailLee, HF:harry.lee@graduate.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailZhang, DD:zhangd@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLee, HF=rp00646en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityZhang, DD=rp00649en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.3354/cr00816en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-68849099076en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros163717en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-68849099076&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume39en_HK
dc.identifier.issue2en_HK
dc.identifier.spage131en_HK
dc.identifier.epage147en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1616-1572-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000269818800005-
dc.publisher.placeGermanyen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLee, HF=9243348000en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridZhang, DD=9732911600en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFok, L=19933387900en_HK

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