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Article: Reconstructing the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Hong Kong by using data from HIV positive tests and diagnoses of acquired immune deficiency syndrome

TitleReconstructing the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Hong Kong by using data from HIV positive tests and diagnoses of acquired immune deficiency syndrome
Authors
KeywordsAcquired immune deficiency syndrome
Back-calculation
Back-projection
Diagnoses
Hong Kong
Human immunodeficiency virus
Incidence
Issue Date2003
PublisherWiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/RSSC
Citation
Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 2003, v. 52 n. 2, p. 237-248 How to Cite?
AbstractThe human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV-AIDS) epidemic in Hong Kong has been under surveillance in the form of voluntary reporting since 1984. However, there has been little discussion or research on the reconstruction of the HIV incidence curve. This paper is the first to use a modified back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV in Hong Kong on the basis of the number of positive HIV tests only. The model proposed has several advantages over the original back-projection method based on AIDS data only. First, not all HIV-infected individuals will develop AIDS by the time of analysis, but some of them may undertake an HIV test; therefore, the HIV data set contains more information than the AIDS data set. Second, the HIV diagnosis curve usually has a smoother pattern than the AIDS diagnosis curve, as it is not affected by redefinition of AIDS. Third, the time to positive HIV diagnosis is unlikely to be affected by treatment effects, as it is unlikely that an individual receives medication before the diagnosis of HIV. Fourth, the induction period from HIV infection to the first HIV positive test is usually shorter than the incubation period which is from HIV infection to diagnosis of AIDS. With a shorter induction period, more information becomes available for estimating the HIV incidence curve. Finally, this method requires the number of positive HIV diagnoses only, which is readily available from HIV-AIDS surveillance systems in many countries. It is estimated that, in Hong Kong, the cumulative number of HIV infections during the period 1979-2000 is about 2600, whereas an estimate based only on AIDS data seems to give an underestimate.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/83073
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.354
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.092
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChau, PHen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCui, JSen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:36:37Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:36:37Z-
dc.date.issued2003en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of The Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 2003, v. 52 n. 2, p. 237-248en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0035-9254en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/83073-
dc.description.abstractThe human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV-AIDS) epidemic in Hong Kong has been under surveillance in the form of voluntary reporting since 1984. However, there has been little discussion or research on the reconstruction of the HIV incidence curve. This paper is the first to use a modified back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV in Hong Kong on the basis of the number of positive HIV tests only. The model proposed has several advantages over the original back-projection method based on AIDS data only. First, not all HIV-infected individuals will develop AIDS by the time of analysis, but some of them may undertake an HIV test; therefore, the HIV data set contains more information than the AIDS data set. Second, the HIV diagnosis curve usually has a smoother pattern than the AIDS diagnosis curve, as it is not affected by redefinition of AIDS. Third, the time to positive HIV diagnosis is unlikely to be affected by treatment effects, as it is unlikely that an individual receives medication before the diagnosis of HIV. Fourth, the induction period from HIV infection to the first HIV positive test is usually shorter than the incubation period which is from HIV infection to diagnosis of AIDS. With a shorter induction period, more information becomes available for estimating the HIV incidence curve. Finally, this method requires the number of positive HIV diagnoses only, which is readily available from HIV-AIDS surveillance systems in many countries. It is estimated that, in Hong Kong, the cumulative number of HIV infections during the period 1979-2000 is about 2600, whereas an estimate based only on AIDS data seems to give an underestimate.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/RSSCen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statisticsen_HK
dc.subjectAcquired immune deficiency syndromeen_HK
dc.subjectBack-calculationen_HK
dc.subjectBack-projectionen_HK
dc.subjectDiagnosesen_HK
dc.subjectHong Kongen_HK
dc.subjectHuman immunodeficiency virusen_HK
dc.subjectIncidenceen_HK
dc.titleReconstructing the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Hong Kong by using data from HIV positive tests and diagnoses of acquired immune deficiency syndromeen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0964-1998&volume=52&spage=237&epage=248&date=2003&atitle=Reconstructing+the+incidence+of+human+immunodeficiency+virus+(HIV)+in+Hong+Kong+by+using+data+from+HIV+positive+tests+and+diagnoses+of+acquired+immune+deficiency+syndrome.++en_HK
dc.identifier.emailChau, PH: phpchau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityChau, PH=rp00574en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1467-9876.00401en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0042076191en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros140205en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros82134-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0042076191&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume52en_HK
dc.identifier.issue2en_HK
dc.identifier.spage237en_HK
dc.identifier.epage248en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000182267100008-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChau, PH=7102266397en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCui, JS=7401811394en_HK

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